Acquired - Lockheed Martin

0:00Those two movies are so freaking good. Yeah. It's so shocking how good Maverick is. So many years later in such a different environment and then like delayed due to coronavirus. Well, the funniest thing is whether it was delayed for whatever years during coronavirus, the fighter that Maverick is in is an F-A-18 Hornet, the Boeing plane. And by the time the movie gets released, it's basically discontinued.

0:28Within a couple of years, that's when they end of life the F-18 Hornet for the Navy. Yeah. Did you catch the Lockheed thing in Maverick? The skunk on the tail of the plane. Oh, yeah. On the Mach 10 Dark Star aircraft. Fuck, it's that Dark Star. Oh god. All right, let's do it. All right, let's do this.

0:59Welcome to season 12 episode 5 of acquired. The podcast about great technology companies and the stories and playbooks behind them. I'm Ben Gilbert. I'm David Rosenthal. And we are your hosts. Today's episode is on a critical piece of American infrastructure, Lockheed Martin. They are the nation's largest defense contractor. They're actually the federal government's largest contractor period.

1:30The American taxpayers pay Lockheed Martin around $50 billion a year. And just to state this early and clearly, Lockheed Martin makes, among other things, killing machines. The company is, of course, critical to defending the American way of life, and most of these things they make, fortunately, are used as deterrents to keep peace, but we should not mince words. They make weapons synonymous with phrases like overwhelming force and air superiority.

1:58You may feel and probably should feel conflicted as you learn about this company. There are really no easy answers to the question is what they make right or good. And that's why we entrust the decision to use their products to the office of the president of the United States. But this company's history is absolutely fascinating. There's stories of hardcore engineering, daring innovators, and it's frankly just inspiring. Yeah. Going back and learning all this and soaking in the history.

2:27of the times when Lockheed was really forged gave me at least a whole new perspective on this killing machines and deterrence question to tell the full story of Lockheed and Lockheed Martin and all the predecessor companies that came before it because I think it's like 17 companies all merged together at this point would probably require a full season of acquired so we're not gonna do that instead we're gonna focus on two interwoven stories from Lockheed, not Martin, but Lockheed's Goldenera's, and the first of those stories is the famous Skunkworks. The second one, I'm not gonna say what it is, so we don't spoil it just yet, but as a teaser, it's unbelievable and is directly tied in to the birth of Silicon Valley. So if you're in the tech world and you think Lockheed, Martin, and Defense, fighter planes doesn't apply to me, think again, because pretty much everything you do.

3:22came out of this, so I can't wait to tell it. Ooh, quite the teaser, David. Well, listeners, this episode was selected by acquired LPs. So if you want to help pick an episode for next season, you can become an acquired limited partner, come closer to the show in other ways, including a private Zoom call with us every month or two for all the LPs. You can join anytime at acquired.fm slash LP. If you want more from David and I, you should check out our interview show ACQ 2.

3:50Our last episode was on the topic of how generative AI can be valuable specifically to B2B SaaS companies and probably more importantly, where it cannot. And listeners, you can just search ACQ2 anywhere podcasts are found. We've got some awesome interviews coming up too. ACQ2 is on fire. Yep.

4:09Join the Slack acquired.fm slash slack we'll be discussing this episode there afterwards and without further ado David take us in and listeners as always this show is not investment advice David and I may have investments in the companies we discuss and this show is for informational and entertainment purposes only so for many of you listening one thing you may not know that I didn't really know till we started the research is that the company that eventually became Lockheed Martin today was two companies it was Lockheed and Martin Marietta and there was a huge merger in 1995. Lockheed was actually the second Lockheed company or really maybe the third. The first Lockheed company was founded in 1912 by one Alan Lockheed, but if you were to look at the spelling of his name, it would look like a loghead. L-O-U-G-H-E-A-D. Yes, but it was pronounced Lockheed because it is Scottish like Lock, like Lockness Lockheed, not Loghead.

5:07He eventually changed his name to Lockheed and the name of the second company to Lockheed to avoid mispronounciations, which is great. He didn't just rename Lockheed the company. He's like, yeah, I'm actually going to change my own name spelling to match it. Yes, so great. So he started the first company with his brother Malcolm and they were more or less contemporaries of the right brothers. It was based in San Francisco of all places and it was mostly kind of a tourist attraction. They had one plane, they had Model G.

5:35and they flew tourists around over the bay and evangelized this new flying technology. It had a bunch of ups and downs. Malcolm leaves the company and goes to Detroit to seek his fortune in the automobile industry where he invented the modern hydraulic brake system for automobiles. So every time you press the brake in your cars, you're using Malcolm Lockheed's technology. No way. Yeah, super cool.

6:01They also end up hiring into this first Lockheed company, one John Northrup. Yes. They might ring some bells to help them design their future airplanes. John would go on to be a co-founder with Allen of the second Lockheed company, then leave the strikeout on his own where he founded the Avion Corporation. They get acquired by Douglas and becomes a big part of Douglas. Douglas, of course, is now part of Boeing. And then after that, John, as you might imagine, founded, you guessed it, Northrup, which is now Northrop Grumman. So this one dude is responsible for founding or playing a major role in three of the remaining five defense prime contractors today. But, anyway, the first Lockheed company goes under. They start the second one a few years later. They have some success with the Vega airplane. People might be familiar with that. It becomes a favorite of Amelia Earhart and Wiley Post, famous early aviators. It becomes successful this second Lockheed company. They end up selling it to a consortium of Detroit.

6:58automogles maybe through the relationships from Malcolm or something that have formed the quote unquote Detroit aircraft corporation or the DAC. This is including Charles Kettering the founder of Delco and head of research at GM as part of this. You may know memorial Sloan Kettering exactly same dude. So the idea was they were going to build the general motors of the air. There was just one problem with that is that aviation did not become a consumer industry like the automobile industry.

7:27Allen Lockheed departs at this point in time and is kind of tangentially involved, but this company that to this day bears his name, after this point in time, he doesn't really have a lot of impact on. Now, shortly after this maybe hair-brained GM of the air idea comes together, and Lockheed gets sold to the Detroit Aircraft Corporation, the stock market crash of 1929, and the Great Depression happens, and DAC predictively goes bankrupt. They sell off the Lockheed Division, which is actually still fairly profitable.

7:56out of bankruptcy to an entrepreneurial, young businessman named Robert Gross. And this is really the founding of the modern Lockheed. And the craziest thing, this price that he bought it for $40,000 was so low that Alan Lockheed actually considered bidding to buy his company back when they had it on the auction block. And his considered bid was $50,000, but he thought that is so low that it might be insulting. There's no way they'd ever sell it. So he didn't actually bid.

8:25and the winning bid was $10,000 less. So amazing. With everything you know of Lockheed today, got bought out of bankruptcy for $40,000. It's crazy. So under Robert Gross and his brother, Cortland, who gets involved, they really are the ones who turn Lockheed into the great company it became. So before World War II, during the 30s, Lockheed builds the famous Electra airplane, which is Absolutely iconic. This is the plane that Amelia Earhart disappears in. Perhaps even more timelessly, this is the plane at the very, very famous scene at the end of the movie, Casablanca, when Rick puts Ilsa on the plane with Victor to escape the Nazis and says, here's looking at you kid. That plane is an electric, I believe an electric junior.

9:13And listeners, you know this plane. It's one of those romantic early aircrafts that were always sort of perched up at an angle where if you saw it standing still on a runway, it looked like it could just take off at any moment. Ah, absolutely beautiful. The Electra and Casablanca brings us to the first core part of our story, which is World War II, which transforms everything. And a man named Clarence Kelly Johnson.

9:40who started the famous Lockheed Skunk Works division. And this is great because before I started the research, I was loosely aware that Lockheed had the first Skunk Works. Now it's become almost like Kleenex when someone says Skunk Works, oh, we're going to start a little Skunk Works division. And like it was not a thing until Kelly Johnson started these Skunk Works. So there's a wonderful book. There are a bunch of wonderful books around Lockheed, but a book titled Skunk Works.

10:08that was written by Ben Rich who was Kelly's second in command for a long time at Skunk Works and then took it over when Kelly retired. And this book is like the top gun of historical autobiographies. You read it and you were just fired up. It is amazing what these people did. It's top gun for engineers. Yes, it's so great. I also highly recommend a book called Beyond the Horizons which is hard to find and most people don't know about.

10:33by Walter Boyne and that is an amazing history of Lockheed during all these eras that we're going to talk about. David, that's so mean. You're recommending an out-of-print book to people. We keep doing this. This one, I think I only paid like 40 bucks for on Amazon, so it's not quite like Taste of Luxury and LVMH, which I think that's now like three, four or five thousand dollars. Oh yeah. No, we definitely spiked the price. We did.

10:57All right, so who is this Kelly Johnson? He's basically the Shigeru Miyamoto of airplane design. His nickname is Kelly because when he was in grade school growing up in Michigan, his real name was Clarence, an older boy called him Clara on the school yard. And Johnson attacked him so viciously that he broke this kid's leg. And so after that, all of his schoolmates never called him Clarence or Clara again and they nicknamed him Kelly.

11:26Okay, so not Clara, but why Kelly? There was some character of Kelly, kind of an Irish tough guy that they named him after. That really was his personality. So after every skunkworks test flight for the rest of his tenure running skunkworks, they throw a big party and Kelly would challenge anyone all-comers to an arm wrestling match. And even when he was like 60 years old, he was still beating people. You should Google a picture of this, dude. He is just a 1930s man's man at his finest.

11:56and maybe the best airplane designer ever to live. That is Kelly Johnson. And when you hear the stories about him, he could intuit the answer to difficult math problems in his head and not just math problems, but like physics problems and applying Bernoulli's principle in his head and come up with an answer that was 5% off from the actual answer. And someone else would go spend hours and hours and hours with pencil and paper and slide roll to come to basically the same number. The quote from his first boss, Lockheed's chief engineer at the time, Kelly would become the chief engineer, but his boss at the time, Hall Hibberd would say, that guy can see the air. So Kelly ends up winning the Collier trophy twice. One of only two people to do so in history, the Collier trophy is the equivalent of like the Oscar for best picture. It's the best airplane design of the air. He wins it twice. He ends up being bestowed the presidential medal of freedom by Lyndon Johnson later in his career. He is a true American hero.

12:51So he ends up joining Lockheed right out of the University of Michigan Engineering School. I'm sorry, University of Michigan, you know, Ohio State, I'm sorry then. In 1933 at 23 years old and Kelly is really one of the, if not the principal engineer that designs and builds the Electra. So he becomes the star of Lockheed's then only six person aviation design and engineering department. There were six people that were making these things. Crazy.

13:19And he does basically everything himself, engineering, designing, testing, even flight testing. There's this amazing quote in skunkworks. This has been rich talking. Kelly once said that unless he had the hell scared out of him, at least once a year in a cockpit, he wouldn't have the proper perspective to design airplanes. So great. Okay. So the start of World War II rolls around. And the first thing that Kelly and Lockheed do is they adapt the Electra into a bombing vehicle called the Hudson.

13:49And even before the US enters the war, the British Royal Air Force ends up buying about 3000 of these Hudson's from Lockheed. Yeah, this is a thing that was eye-opening to me doing the research. Lockheed's big customer in World War II before the US enters was Britain's Royal Air Force. They were a way bigger customer than the US was for many, many years. So then once the US enters the war and as they're gearing up to enter the war, Kelly designs the amazing P-38 lightning fighter, which was the US's elite, fastest, most maneuverable aircraft during World War II. They made over 10,000 of them during the war, and all of the top aces in the US Army Air Corps flew them. It was the plane that shot down the transport that was carrying Japanese Admiral Yamamoto, the guy who had kind of masterminded and overseeing the Pearl Harbor attack.

14:46This is a legendary airplane. Side note, I will say last week, partly in preparation for recording this, but partly because it's something that I've always wanted to do. I went to Pearl Harbor and there is truly nothing like being there and experiencing that growing up in America. We basically haven't had attacks on our soil. It's 9-11 in Pearl Harbor period. So it's a very unusual thing to see in your own country.

15:13the remnants of an attack and being over the sunken USS Arizona from the Japanese bombing. It's a harrowing and heavy, but I think that that's an experience I'd recommend to anyone. Okay. So that was kind of Lockheed and Kelly during the war. Fast forward now to kind of the waning days of World War II, end of 1944 into 1945. It's pretty clear that America and the Allies are going to win the war at this point in time, but it's also becoming evident that there are two big problems that are emerging, one very immediate and one sort of longer term. The immediate problem is that in the skies over Europe, in the air theater of the European front, a new technology is appearing on the German side. Jet-powered fighter planes have begun to pop up.

16:07And we're not a military history podcast. Save this for hardcore history in Dan Carlin. But my understanding of this is that the German jet fighters entered the war to lead to make a difference. But if they had entered service earlier, it would have been a big problem. So the US and the allies, they're like, oh crap, we need to step up our game and get a jet fleet in service for us ASAP. And for anyone who's not an av geek out there or an aviation geek, it's worth knowing.

16:36Going from a prop airplane to a jet airplane is not just incremental. It's an entirely different technology. You may have heard the phrase if you've looked into this before, suck, squeeze, bang, blow. It is a completely transformative process of how the engine uses the air in order to create thrust that is much more sophisticated than just a propeller.

16:58My understanding is the engines that airplanes were flying before then even the P38 as sophisticated as it was were basically automobile internal combustion engines. Totally. So we're observing overseas. Our enemy has a completely new technology that we have not tamed and mastered yet. We're in a disadvantage. So that's one problem. And we're going to focus on that first, the other problem to put a pin in for later. And we start to get worried that our ally, the Russians and the Soviets.

17:27Our relationship with them might not be quite what we think it is. We might have to address that in the coming decades. Keep that in your back of your mind as we go along here. But let's start with the jet problem. The German plane that had started appearing in the skies over Europe was the Messerschmitt ME262, nicknamed the swallow. It was the world's first operational jet-powered aircraft. It flew close to 550 miles an hour, which is over 100 miles an hour faster than any allied plane, including the Lightning P-38. So the US government turns to, of course, the very best person for the job to start the US jet fighter program. Kelly Johnson and Lockheed. And they tell him, go make us a jet fighter as soon as possible and by any means necessary. And when we say as soon as possible,

18:20We want a prototype in 180 days with the spec that it must go faster than the German swallow, so at least 600 miles an hour. You need to pull out all the stops, bypass any red tape, do absolutely anything necessary to make this happen. And for those tracking along at home, 600 miles per hour, not quite the speed of sound, not quite Mach 1, but approaching that, something like 80-ish percent to Mach. Yep. So, Johnson.

18:49hand picks 23 of Lockheed's very best engineers and designers, and about 30 of the best shop people, the people that actually build the airplanes, and get this, he rents a literal circus tent to house them in the parking lot next to a plastic factory that is nearby to Lockheed's headquarters in Burbank.

19:15California. And it is because of this that the name skunkworks is born because of the outdoor nature in the tent and the smell coming from this plastic factory. At the time, there was a very popular comic strip called Little Abner. And a character in this comic strip had an outdoor moonshine still making bootlegs, prohibition era alcohol. And this still in the comic strip was called the skunkworks.

19:44I think it was called the Skoncorks. That's right. The Skoncorks with an O and eventually the publisher of Little Abner sues Lockheed over using Skoncorks so they changed it to Skoncorks. So in this circus tent in a parking lot, Kelly and this super elite team from Lockheed build the first prototype US fighter jet named the Lulu Bell in 143 days start to finish. This is just wild for years. The US had been working on this technology and they hadn't gotten it operationalized. The Germans beat them to it. And then in 143 days, Kelly and Lockheed go from zero to flying prototype. Wow. Crazy. What a testament to him and to this organization in the circus tent that he has built the Skunkworks. Seriously.

20:41So this 180 day thing is a very interesting constraint placed on them. And it means that they immediately need to go to an acquired axiom that we've talked about forever. Don't do something that's not your core competency. A.K.A. doesn't make the beer taste better or make the plain fly faster. Exactly. And outsource everything else. And if you only have 180 days to do it, you are not going to become an engine manufacturing company. You are going to look around and say, okay, which of my allies has the capability to just give me an engine. So they find this British company, Halford, and they take the Halford H1B Goblin engine, and that is what they put in this prototype. Yes, this prototype, the Lulu Bell, would go on to become the P80 shooting star. Lockheed would ultimately make about 2,000 of them. And while they weren't really used in World War II, because the war ended, they would be used in Korea, and it would be the first jet fighter plane in the US military.

21:39You raised a really important point, though, that we didn't cover earlier about Lockheed and Skunkworks. They are not engine manufacturers. All of the engines that were going into the planes before, during, since, they're getting from other companies. That is true across the aerospace industry. That's interesting that the value chain evolved this way, where basically no aircraft manufacturers to this day make their own engines. And commercially, you've got Rolls Royce GE, but every single one of these Lockheed planes, the engines are made by someone else.

22:08Yeah, very different from how the automobile industry evolved where like obviously Ford and GM and whatnot, they're making their own engines. Yep. So this amazing feat, building what becomes the P80 shooting star and the US's first jet fighter plane in less than six months, this is the beginning of skunkworks and Kelly realizes, Hey, this is something pretty special here. So I want to read a little quote from the skunkworks book that Primitive Skunkwork's operation set the standards for what followed. The project was highly secret, very high priority, and time was of the essence. The air corps had cooperated to meet all of Kelly's needs and then got out of his way. And boy, did they deliver. So the P-80 would eventually give way to the F-104 Starfighter, which was another invention from Kelly and the team. Kelly would win the Collier trophy for this. So after...

23:05the war, Kelly says, hey, this is special. We should keep this going. And the gross brothers and Lockheed's management agree. And they say, yes, you can keep this quote unquote skunkworks division going as long as it doesn't take too much money. And it doesn't distract from your duties in the rest of the company as now the new chief engineer. So Kelly is both the chief engineer of all of Lockheed and running skunkworks at the same time. It's insane. This not taking too much money thing does become a core tenant of the Skunk Works operation, because you can sort of get around management's iron and management's need to report to shareholders and things like that. If you're doing amazing things and pulling rabbits out of hats, and when it's not going well, you're not a huge burden. Yeah, so I'm going to read a little more from Skunk Works here. So Kelly and his handful of bright young designers that he selected took over some empty space in building 82. This is a building

24:04on the Lockheed campus, which is right next to the Burbank Municipal Airport. It's an unmarked building. Literally, this is a commercial airport that average people are taking off of every single day.

24:17So that it continues. Those guys brainstormed what if questions about the future needs of commercial and military aircraft? And if one of their ideas resulted in a contract to build an experimental prototype, Kelly would borrow the best people he could find in the main plant to get the job done. That way the overhead was kept low and the financial risks to the company stayed. Small. His small group were all young and high spirited who thought nothing of working out of a phone booth, if necessary, as long as they were designing and building.

24:46airplanes. All that mattered to Kelly was our proximity to the production floor. A stone's throw was too far away. He wanted us, the engineers and designers, only steps away from the shop workers to make quick structural or parts changes. Yes, I love this. I think this is a huge learning. Keeping your designers as close as possible to production so the game of telephone is as short as possible.

25:13it is incredibly valuable and having the designers being able to glance up at their desk and see like literally the way things are being manufactured so they can say oh that look good in the diagram but in practice you have to bring this big thing around over here maybe we can make that better the next time we design it it's just such a great key insight the other thing on the small number of people this gets to the skunk works rules and Kelly created this incredible document 14 rules that will link to in the show notes oh yeah The third of which, I mean they're all incredible, the third of which really applies here. And I quote, the number of people having any connection with the project must be restricted in an almost vicious manner, use a small number of good people, 10% to 25% compared to the so-called normal systems. These people should all be together, all of them building relationships, collaborating, working together to produce the very best product.

26:08And you see this in products in the future too, the iPhone, the iPod. I mean, you read the stories about the early teams there are 6, 8, 10 people. They're all full stack, so there's these unicorns that cross disciplines and they're 10X, 100X engineers. So you really only need a handful of really good people. All right, listeners. Now is a great time to talk about a new partner of ours here on Acquired, LaGora.

26:33the agentic operating system that is redefining how the world's best legal teams work. Yup, it's sort of obvious that AI is going to completely change the legal industry. I bet most of you listening have dropped a contract into some sort of AI chatbot out there. LaGora took that insight and asked the question, what if you really built something with that power from the ground up for the legal industry? So the founders did exactly what great founders do, operate with obsessive customer focus.

27:02They embedded inside a massive law firm for months. They sat with the lawyers just watching how the work really gets done. And that's how you get features that customers love, like tabular review, where you drop in a folder of hundreds of contracts and it pulls every key term into a grid a lawyer can actually work with.

27:21Lagora's bed here is interesting. Since it lets each lawyer handle more complexity, any given person can increase the quality of their work and do higher value work, and this means that the pie can grow even as each individual task takes less time.

27:34And they recently launched LaGora agent offering greater intelligence and performance. The agent lets lawyers set an objective. Then it can handle the planning and the execution and delivery of the final product. Legal teams get to maintain full control and transparency since they're still involved where judgment is required. And LaGora works where you already work. You can use it within Microsoft Word while redlining or drafting. The early LaGora numbers essentially speak for themselves when they have a head-to-head pilot with their top competitor they win 70% of the time LaGora now has over a hundred thousand lawyers on the platform from 1200 legal teams in 50 countries and crazily they went from one million to a hundred million in ARR in about 18 months truly insane numbers and that is the real test

28:27Plenty of things demo well, but the question is whether a busy associate actually reaches for it during crunch time, or whether a partner trusts it before going into a conversation with a major client. If your legal team wants to check it out, whether you're a law firm or you're in house at a company, you can learn more at logora.com slash acquired and just tell them that Ben and David sent you. All right, David. So what makes Skunk Works work? Well, to start all that mattered, literally the only thing.

28:56that matters is rapid delivery of superior products and that was driven by the expedient requirements of World War II literally saving America and the free world and then the Cold War which is going to come in in a big way in a second here listeners might be thinking isn't all that matters in any business rapid delivery of superior products like why is this new and unique and different The reality, though, is that that's almost never the case. There's politics, there's personalities. Well, and you rarely have an existential threat that you must cut through all the red tape. It's like operation warp speed, the way that we got the vaccines as fast as we did. If the world is on the line, what can you do away with in your processes and which people can you hand select to solve it? Competition and existential competition kind of has a way of bringing out the best in people.

29:52So Ben, you already talked about rule three. I want to- Did we pick the same ones? I'm so curious. We got 14 to pick from, let's see, let's pick three that we're going to highlight here. We already talked about number three. What are your others? The next one I want to talk about is the Skunkworks manager must be delegated practically complete control of his program in all aspects.

30:12Yeah, I mean, this is like the auteur theory, like you have to have a single person's vision and the buck stopping with a single person who has ultimate control and isn't a squeezed middle manager. He's the program manager for any given program that they're working on, any new aircraft, and also he's the guy flying to Washington to interface with the government. It's not like he's dealing with the engineers and then calling the sales force and being like, hey, can you go to a stake dinner with our guy in Washington? No, it's Kelly.

30:41And yet it's most productive. Skunkworks I think was about maybe 50 designers and engineers and maybe 100 machinists and shoppeople like this is not a large organization. It's crazy. My last one is the last one of the rules. Yes, this is one of mine too. Because only a few people will be used in engineering and most other areas. Ways must be provided to reward good performance by pay.

31:08Not based on number of personnel supervised. So Kelly has a quote about this in the book. In the main plant, they give raises on the basis of the more people supervised. I give raises to the guy who supervises the least. That means he's doing more and taking more responsibility. But most executives don't think like that at all. They're empire builders. This is so important. Yep.

31:31Totally agree. And in fact, it's thinking like a capitalist too. I mean, it's really like how can we achieve the most with the least? Not how can we achieve a fixed amount with a fixed margin? So there's one more thing that isn't in any of the rules because I think it's just sort of a implicit unspoken assumption. All of this only works if the small group of people that you've brought together are highly motivated. And I think the reason this was taken for granted for like all of Skunk Works heyday was You know, hey, the mission here is preserving your life and the lives of your loved ones and America from losing World War II and then, you know, having nuclear bombs dropped on it by the Soviet Union. You don't really need a lot of extra cajoling or motivation here. Totally. And you got to think back. This was a time where American superiority was not guaranteed. I think we have a reasonable amount of complacency today.

32:24Americans feel very secure. Sure, there are enemies, but are we going to be fine totally? We don't need to think about this that much. We can decide to prioritize other things and have passions and say, yeah, other people can take care of the national good because like, it will be fine either way. That was not the belief at the time. No, there's this great quote in Skunk Works where Ben Rich tells the story of his first day in Skunk Works where he's shown the U2.

32:50prototype. We're going to talk all about the YouTube in a minute here. But literally day one, he's shown the prototype of this top highly classified, highly secret airplane that nobody can know about. He says, the full weight of government secrecy fell on me like a sack of cement that day inside Kelly Johnson's guarded domain, learning an absolutely momentous national security secret just took my breath away. And I left work bursting with both pride and energy to be on the inside of a project.

33:20so special and closely held, but also nervous about the burdens it would impose on my life. This is exactly to your point. You know, with great power comes great responsibility here. Yep. Okay, so what are the machines that sort of unfold from here? Yeah, all right. So a minute ago, I was talking about the two problems that America and its allies have at the end of World War II. One was the Jets.

33:44Skunk Works addresses that with the P80 shooting star. The other problem is, yeah, we're going to win this war, but there's a whole new war that's just about to start. Yeah, and the war we're coming out of is World War II, but of course, the cold war against the Russians is just starting. And this is so hard for us to process today, but doing the research, I really felt it. I think for a lot of people, the stakes and the pressure And the worry about the Cold War was greater than World War II. Yeah, that's a great point. When the Americans entered World War II, we had reason to believe that we could come in and win. The Cold War, I think to the American psyche, felt very different. I think we had good reason to believe we were not going to win. So right after the war, Churchill comes to America and gives his famous Iron Curtain speech in Fulton, Missouri, that an Iron Curtain has descended.

34:39over Europe in the form of the Soviet Union. And then before the end of the decade, I didn't really realize the timeline on this. In August 1949, the Soviet Union detonates its first nuclear bomb, and nobody believed that they were going to have the bomb that quickly or that powerfully. And not only did they have the bomb, but whether this was real or not or positioning, people really believe that the Soviets and cruise ships intention is to use the bomb against America, if they ever believe that they could do so without fear of retaliation, that they could knock us out first, that they would do a first strike and use nuclear weapons on America. And this kicks off the Cold War arms race, and people probably know and learn about mutually assured destruction and deterrence. This really was the policy of the military and the American government, that we need to have capabilities

35:38to deter the Soviet Union from launching a first nuclear strike against us by being able to guarantee and have them know that we guarantee that if they do so, we will destroy them. So they can't do this because if they do, they will be destroyed. That was the whole policy. And that's like a really scary place to be. This is like, if somebody over there in the Kremlin decides one day that they think they can win, we're all going to die. Right.

36:07In 1955, there was a national poll that asked the question, what do you think you are most likely to die from? And over half of America responded that they thought they were most likely to die in thermonuclear war. Wow. Above any other cause. Let that sink in. Over half of the country thought they were going to die in nuclear war. Horrifying. And so...

36:34In a war of perception, intelligence is paramount. Bingo, it is the most important thing. Even more important than your ability to strike and wage war, is your ability to know what the current state of the opponent's ability is to strike and wage war. So that means that the ballad ground is no longer the use of weapons, but the intelligence about the existence and positioning of weapons, and nobody...

37:02is better suited than Skunkworks to be the US government and militaries. Primary sounds cliche to say, but sword and shield during this war. Yes, so this brings us to the U2 spy plane. And this plane serves such an important purpose that ended up being brought into service in 1955 and was only decommissioned in 1989. Yeah, incredible.

37:30Now there are many airplane programs that have 10, 20, 25-year timeframes for very different reasons. Yes, that we will talk about in the military and industrial complex. But the U2 was basically the first time that America found a plane that it could use for a long time and wasn't rapidly replaced by the next best thing. Okay, so it would be really great if you could fly a plane over Russia and take pictures and understand all this. Because there's no satellites yet.

37:56Well, are there satellites? We'll talk about that a little later. But you can't just fly a plane into Russia and do that. It's a closed country. The Russians are going to shoot you down if you do it. We're not technically at war, so it would violate international treaties to go into their airspace. We would start the war by doing that. Exactly. So the first thing, it's funny. It's got in the news now that China is doing this now. The first thing we try is unmanned spy balloons. We send balloons over Russia. Failed weather experiments. Yeah, failed weather experiments. Yeah, that fails on many fronts, including

38:26actually returning usable photos of Soviet nuclear installations. So, really it becomes clear that what's required is an entirely new type of airplane that can either do one of two things and ideally both. Fly over Russia stealthily and undetected by radar, or two, fly high enough or fast enough that they can't shoot it down even if they do.

38:51And so Scott works being the ambitious organization that they are tries for option one. And we don't frankly know very much about what rushes capabilities are. So we're pretty sure that we can build some airplane that flies high enough that their radar systems won't detect us. And great. So let's do that. Yeah. Great. So this is interesting. What government agency contracts them to do this? It's not the military.

39:17We're in the spy game now. It's not the Army, not the Navy, not the Air Force. It's the CIA. They are building their own air capabilities and all of the work that Skunk Works does here and for many years to come is for the CIA. Yep. So what exactly is the challenge that Skunk Works has laid out in front of them for designing this new spy plane? Well, at the time, the maximum altitude that airplanes flew was about 40,000 feet.

39:44The US thought that the Soviets best interceptor fighter aircraft could get to about 45,000 feet. Yep, and we also thought that their radar wouldn't function above like 55,000, right? We were like, all right, as long as we clear 65,000, we should be higher than their radar could even detect and certainly higher than their fighters could come get us. Right. So the CIA's spec for Skunk Works for the U2 is to fly at 70,000 feet. Now, there are a couple.

40:14problems with that. One is that normal jet fuel doesn't work at that altitude. You know, at that altitude, the pressure, the temperature, everything about the environment, you're getting to be closer to space than you are to normal Earth atmosphere and things start going wrong. So that one, they actually subcontract with shell oil to make a new formulation of jet fuel that does work up there. So you know, that problem is solved.

40:42Problem number two is maybe a little bigger, and that is that humans cannot survive at that altitude. So certainly you need a pressurized cabin, but if something were to happen and you needed to be out of the cabin, you know, cold, no air blah blah blah. Yeah, and I don't know the technical details, but I think even the cabin pressurization technology that existed then was not going to cut it at 70,000 feet. So you basically need a space suit.

41:09Exactly. Some of this technology came from like diving suits and some other things that came before this, but I think this was the big coming together of the technology that created the space suit. And that's what they put these pilots in. Wow. So Lockheed and Skunk Works win the contract from the CIA. They start working on this plane in sometime in 1953.

41:33incredibly top secret. We wouldn't reveal the fact that this existed to the Russians, our own people for years and years and years. I mean, this is like the quote from earlier that we read from Ben Rich when he started working on this project day one and saw the prototype and then hit him like a sack of cement, you know, how important this was. So Skunkworks completes and delivers the plane by July 1955. So like a year and a half and for a total project cost, of three and a half million dollars that's an M that is not a B a year and a half and three and a half million dollars for one of the most important products and pieces of technology in American history astounding this is what skunk works is capable of so they're flying higher than any plane is ever flown before they're using a different type of fuel people are flying in space suits for the first time feels like to be a reconnaissance aircraft you would also need one other

42:32key component in order to achieve the mission of spying on the enemy. Yeah, to take photos, you need a camera. Indeed. And you would need an all new type of camera with all new type of lens capable of taking photographs of something 70,000 feet away from you through, you know, a whole bunch of atmosphere. Gosh, if only the US had someone who was just incredible at this sort of pioneering Optics technology indeed the US did and that was Dr Edwin land and the Polaroid company who subcontracted and created all of that and actually I believe it was Edwin land himself that helped convinced President Eisenhower to even pursue this project in the first place who's like we can build the camera that can do this if we can get the airplane bill we can do this project this blew my mind is so cool to see the intersections of

43:28different innovators throughout history. I mean, Edwin Land is the man who inspired Steve Jobs and he's building the YouTube's camera. Oh, just wait. We are going to have a lot more tech and Silicon Valley and Apple stuff that's going to come up here in just a little bit. So they build the plane. You got to test this thing. They're not going to roll it on the runway in Burbank and take off and you know, just head for the Soviet Union. You got to test it and you know, it's got to be secretive whatnot.

43:56And remember, Kelly Johnson, one of his big principles is like, we test our products. You, the government don't test our products, we test our products. And we should be clear, this U2 spy plane looks crazy. It has a hundred foot wing span. Yeah, this thing, if you saw it taking off, you would be like, okay, I've seen airplanes, that thing is completely different. So it's not like they could...

44:17Disguise it. Like you need to figure out somewhere in the United States where there's basically nobody so that you can test this thing. Oh, this is so fun. Oh, the smile on our faces is like, you can't see us, but it is stretching out of the room here. Yeah, you can't just paint this thing like a school bus and pretend it's something else. So they need to find a suitable test site. They go scouting all across the Western US and kind of remote areas. Kelly Johnson is sort of like Sam Walton and his prop plane scouting out for, you know, Walmart locations.

44:47flying sideways and then they get an idea and that idea is where is a place where even if there were people before, they're sure aren't people now because nobody in their right mind would want to be anywhere close to where we just tested our nuclear bombs. And they go, oh, as long as we figure out that it's safe, that would be a perfect place.

45:16for us to test this airplane. So they find a dry lake bed in Nevada called Grume Lake. And there's quote from Kelly Johnson here about this in the book, we flew over it and within 30 seconds you knew that this was the place. It was right by a dry lake. Man alive, we looked at that lake and we all looked at each other. It was another Edwards, like Edwards Air Force Base. So we wheeled around, landed on that lake, taxied up to one end of it.

45:42It was a perfect natural landing field as smooth as a billiard table without anything being done to it. How insane is it that this is where we were testing nukes? I actually do not understand how there was not radiation poisoning. And I don't fully understand the half-life and all that needs to be done. But like, how was that safe? Yeah, it's insane. And not only were there recently nuclear tests happening right here by...

46:10I believe that nuclear testing continued right nearby while they're using this site Groom Lake to test the U2. 100% is the craziest thing they had to like sometimes take some time between the most recent nuclear test and when they wanted to go fly because these sites are like I don't know, 12 miles away from each other, something pretty close. If you're curious listeners, there's this great documentary on Amazon called Secrets in the Sky, the untold story of skunkworks that has a bunch of footage of all of this. Wow. So listeners, if you haven't caught on already, the location that we are talking about. A Nevada test site in the middle of the desert. Nuclear, some really strange looking flying aircraft. This is Area 51.

46:56Scunkworks creates Area 51. And of course, there's rumors of UFOs there. They want to keep everyone away for the people who they can't keep away. They're going to see some really weird flying stuff. So of course, the rumors are going to start. It's all goodness for Scunkworks. This cover is great. Oh, it's even better than that. I can't remember which plane or when this was, but at one point in time, they were one of the test flights crashed and the pilot survived and somebody saw him.

47:26He was wearing a space suit. Nobody knew what a space suit was. Of course he looked like a freaking alien. Right. It would be another 10 years before we would have the moon missions. Yeah. It's so funny. Amazing. Yeah. It's all skunkworks in the YouTube. Wow. And then the blackbird and everything else we're going to get into later in the story. All happening at a very a 51.

47:49The prep work that the pilots had to go through before getting on these planes to or nuts, they needed to breathe pure oxygen for two hours to remove all the nitrogen from their blood. In case they had to eject, because remember, these are test pilots on a super experimental aircraft. They were often ejecting or they were often, you know, things went wrong in these tests. Yeah, a bunch of people died doing this, like we should say. Yeah. I mean, great sacrifice to bring this program and subsequent skunk works programs into the world.

48:19Basically, what was happening is if you didn't breathe pure oxygen for two hours, you could get the bends, you know, for anyone who's scuba-dived and you can't fly right afterwards from ejecting. And so it's like, well, if you managed to get out of the aircraft before it crashed, then that could kill you. So you needed to make sure that this sort of oxygenating of your blood and getting rid of all the nitrogen made it so that if you did need to eject, then you would survive this as well. Yeah, crazy. Okay.

48:47So they test the U2 at Area 51, so great. They get it up and running in an active service as an operational spy plane, pretty much the world's first, at least of this type, within a year. The first Soviet Union overflight happens on July 4th, 1956. Of course it was.

49:09Of course, I'm still alive for it. Now, this is so interesting. There's a whole bunch of things that happen when they take out. Like, they don't know what's going to happen. It's this thing going to work, or the Soviet's going to see us. Like, we're going to learn so much here. You can't script this stuff. The Soviets tracked it on radar, even at 70,000 feet the whole way, the whole way right from it takes off the whole flight path through Russia. They knew everything that we were doing. We were super wrong about their radar, they didn't just have low altitude radar. They were capable of radar that could see straight up into space, wherever we were flying, they were going to see us. Yeah, which we had no idea. So we learned this as part of it. So here's what's funny. We know that they see it from takeoff. They track the YouTube the whole way. This whole top secret program like, oh, no, it's busted. They see it, but it turns out they can't hit it. So, you know, a whole bunch of fighter jets scrambled and the fighter jets, they can't get up that high so they can't intercept it.

50:04They launch surface to air missiles. The missiles can't hit anything. That high up. So the YouTube just flies along. They're tracking it the whole way. There's planes flying along behind it and they can't do anything. But at least we get the intel now in the US that, okay, they can see up here. And so it's probably just a matter of time before they're capable of shooting something down up here too. Yes, but here's what's so interesting. Remember this whole war? Like, God, it's fascinating.

50:31It's a war, but it's not a war. It's a war of perception. So in that flight, we get incredible photographic observational evidence. And we would fly so many missions over Russia for the next few years, getting this incredible intelligence. The Soviets never say anything. Because if they were to say anything and say that they tracked us into it, then they would be admitting that they were powerless to stop it.

50:56This war of perception, like it's so crazy the incentives and motivations here, but it makes sense. They're not going to say anything and reveal the program. So it remains top secret because if they did, their sort of position and posturing of strength would be compromised. And neither country really wants to be at war. So we're both maintaining this. We're not at war.

51:17You know, and we're not going to tell you that we're preparing for if we need to be, but of course we're going to do whatever we can to understand the best about our enemy or not our enemy or other countries that we're not at war with. Adversary. Right. And I actually think there may be, you know, military historians that understand this better than us, but I think this was actually an optimal outcome for the US because Remember, just like you were saying, Ben, nobody actually wants to go to war here. The goal is for both sides to keep each other in check. And so this, the U2 and these reconnaissance missions, become a major chess piece for us on our side of the board to keep the Soviets in check. We like this state, I think, that they know about it, but nobody talks about it.

52:03The other crazy thing is, this camera is incredible. If you look up photos taken by the YouTube spy plane, it is remarkable what in the mid-50s, this thing was capable of taking photographs of from 70,000 feet. The engineering all around that went into this is just incredible. When you could do a whole podcast just about the technical aspects of the engineering advances.

52:24And it basically works. They find a whole bunch of nuclear test sites. They find where missiles are kept. We basically have a real time count of the Soviet Union's warheads, the Soviet Union's fighter jets, the capabilities that they have with their radar because it's painting our airplanes. So we now know that that exists. Mission accomplished in spades on this thing. We talked earlier about The cost of three and a half million dollars. You know, I think you could make an analogy to like the Louisiana purchase in terms of like best deals that the United States government ever got relative to like the benefit to America. This is arguably the last great deal they got from Lockheed Martin, but. Well, no, there's some more that we're going to talk about in a minute. So this all continues. We fly dozens, maybe hundreds of you two missions over the next few years. The Russians are constantly trying to shoot them down. They fail. Nobody says anything.

53:15And then, on May 1st, 1960, ironically on Mayday, we launched the YouTube program on July 4th, and it ends, at least over the Soviet Union, on Mayday, 1960, the Soviets finally have developed a missile that can reach 70,000 feet with accuracy, and they shoot down a U2. This was the first time in history that a ground-to-air missile had shot down an airplane.

53:43I didn't realize this. I read that. I was like, oh, whoa, I guess maybe the technology didn't exist during World War II, the Korean War. And so this was a major historical moment in so many ways. America and the CIA and the government, the president, their way to like, okay, right. What do we do? America's posture is we were never there. Right. But we know now that the motivation for Russia not to talk about it now is gone. Now they can position this as like, hey, we're so strong that we can keep people out. We expect them to say something right away.

54:12A couple of weeks go by. They say nothing. Quite surprising. All we know is we've lost contact with our pilot, and we didn't see them come back in land. So we presume that they shot down our pilot, but they're not saying anything. But we don't really know. And we presume that if this plane was shot down as we think, probably the pilot was killed. I mean, like you shoot down a plane from 70,000 feet. Right. Probably the pilot was killed.

54:38Well, that's 14 miles in the air. Yeah. No. The pilot was not killed. The pilot's name was Francis Gary Powers. Pilot Powers. If you know anything about US history, you probably know his name. And you probably know that he miraculously did survive and was captured and interrogated and probably tortured by the Russians. And that this was the revealing of the YouTube program. So what happens?

55:06Turns out that there was a big summit in Paris scheduled for later in May between Eisenhower and cruise chief. And cruise chief announces on the eve of the summit that they have captured in American pilot. They have captured this new plane that the US has been illegally and in a provocatory manner flying over Soviet airspace. They have defended their country and shot it down and this creates a huge mess.

55:35Eisenhower first denies this and then admits it when we realize that like oh shoot this pilot is still alive he's confessed like wow this is a disaster yeah so I guess there probably was a path where this could have led to escalation fortunately it does not but it does mean that the YouTube program at least over Russia is done we don't fly anymore YouTube's over Russia we can't I mean if we were to do it at this point we know they can see us they now can talk about that they can see us and they can shoot us down, like, it would escalate to war if we kept doing this. We have to stop. The YouTube becomes quite useful for other locations around the globe, but not over the USSR itself. This though is a huge, huge problem. This was the most important thing in the war, and now it's gone, right? We now have no way to take photos of military sites in Russia, because we can't fly planes over there anymore, right? We're blind. What do we do? What do we do? Well,

56:32The world would not know until 1995 when this would all become declassified under the Clinton administration, but that was only true for about three months, thanks to another super secretive Lockheed division that figured out another way for us to take pictures of the Soviet Union. Yes, and this listeners is where If you've read Skunk Works or watched documentaries about Skunk Works, what we're about to talk about is not in any of those. This is a completely separate story that takes place in a different place in California that is a detour from our Skunk Works story. And we'll be back because my god, Skunk Works, do some incredible things after the U2. But before we do that, we want to take you to Northern California and the origins of Silicon Valley and Lockheed's participation in that.

57:28All right, listeners. Now is a great time to tell you about a longtime friend of the show, Vanta. AI has scrambled the whole security picture. It used to be that you proved that you were secure once a year, an audit or a static PDF, then everyone would not, and you're done. But in an AI first world, that doesn't hold up anymore. Yep, your risk surface changes every week now.

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58:31Which is exactly why more than 16,000 companies today run on Vanta companies like ramp cursor and snowflake all stay audit ready and catch the risks that crop up between audits across every vendor every AI tool the whole environment and that's the real value.

58:50Trust has to be continuous now, which is why Vanta automates your security, your compliance, and the work to earn and prove trust. We're huge fans of Vanta over here, and literally hundreds of acquired listeners have become Vanta customers at their companies over the years. So you can get $1,000 off Vanta at Vanta.com slash acquired. That's V-A-N-T-A dot com slash acquired for $1,000 off and just tell them that Ben and David sent you. Okay, David. So I had forgotten about this story.

59:19I knew a little bit of it from watching Steve Blank's great talk maybe five, eight years ago, the secret history of Silicon Valley, but you sort of found the last 20 minutes and then just dug in like a splinter on this particular moment in history and how it is all tied in to Lockheed Martin. So where are we going? Yeah. Well, and it's even lesser known than that only certain versions of that talk that Steve has given contain the Lockheed story.

59:47Because so much of it has only recently been declassified, a lot of it, even after he first started giving this talk. So what really turned me on to this was some of the chapters in Beyond the Horizons, even though that book was written in the late 90s. I started digging in and then I started watching some YouTube videos with some of the people involved in this and I was like, oh my god, there is this incredible story here that we don't realize.

1:00:11Yes, in typical David Rosenthal fashion, you sent me a note the other day and said, you have to listen to this starting at eight minutes and 50 seconds and I was like, what is this? And I click and it's a guy at a podium with a terrible recording setup from the IEEE Silicon Valley History video. So industry association, this thing has 124 views after being posted seven years ago. Incredible. This stuff is buried.

1:00:38I honestly can't believe it, and I'm so glad that we get to tell you here. Alright, let's set the context. So if we rewind back to World War II, one thing we kind of mentioned here now, as we were talking about the U2 and the Russians tracking it on radar, but we didn't talk about during World War II, was the importance of radar. Now, so much of World War II was an air war, both in Europe and then especially in the Pacific.

1:01:06And the development of both radar and anti-radar technologies was paramount in the war efforts. Yes, there was lots of land-based fighting and tanks and all that stuff, but World War II was the first real air war. And obviously that importance of radar continued into the Cold War, just like we were talking about with YouTube flights. Now, during World War II, where was all of the US and Allied radar work and research being done? It was primarily being done out of two institutions in Boston, MIT with the Radiation Laboratory, or the Rad Lab, and Harvard with the Harvard Radio Research Laboratory. Now, here's what's interesting. Neither of these two labs at MIT and Harvard existed before the war. The government directed MIT and Harvard to set them up as part of the war effort. They didn't exist before, and then MIT and Harvard

1:02:04Very fortunately for California and Silicon Valley, shut them down after the war. Now, it turns out that the head of the Harvard lab was a professor named Frederick Termin. Might ring some bells for people, especially people who went to Stanford. Termin was probably the world's leading expert on radio engineering and also vacuum tubes and early computing, except Termin wasn't actually a Harvard professor. Termin was a Stanford professor. He was just on loan to Harvard during the war years, because that's where the government set up the radio labs. And the government allocated millions and millions of dollars of funding to Harvard and MIT and something like $50,000 to Stanford. All of the funding for this was Harvard and MIT. Yes, they assembled all of the world's experts and termin was

1:02:58arguably one of if not the leading world expert in radio engineering assembled them there in Boston. I guess in Cambridge at Harvard and MIT. Cambridge residents would get mad at us if we say Boston. So after the war, Terman comes back to Stanford because Harvard shut down the lab. He comes back to Stanford and he does three things. First, he recruits away.

1:03:21All of the best people that he worked with at the Harvard Radio Lab from universities all over the country, he recruits them to Stanford. And he gives them tenure immediately. Yes. He's like, I want to make this deal as sweet as possible for you because I want to will Stanford into existence as an engineering institution. Yes, of the highest order. So that's one. Two, soon after he gets back to Stanford, he becomes the provost of the entire university.

1:03:51And as provost, he completely changes the way tech transfer is done at Stanford. No other university has, as good of a tech transfer policy as Stanford, they're notoriously friendly. Yes, notoriously friendly and everywhere else, including Harvard, MIT, Princeton, blah, blah, blah, notoriously unfriendly and hard to work with.

1:04:10The classic story is Stanford owned 1% of Google that's been out which ended up making them an ungodly amount of money because of how big Google became and if that were at other universities they would have said 50% is what we need to keep or 33% is what we need to keep and they would have smothered the innovation before it could become commercially viable. Now I saw it in the back of my mind and knew this because I had watched steep blanks talk many years ago.

1:04:35But I kind of forgot. I just thought it was like, oh, well, that's because Stanford and Silicon Valley, like we get it. We're smart, not that we're smarter, but there's this attitude of, you know, if you're in Silicon Valley, even to this day, you're like, yeah, we get how the culture works here. And like the East Coast doesn't get it. As if this somehow existed a priori, because it was just in the water and came from nowhere. Not at all. It's all thanks to Turmin and World War II and his experience at the radio lab. When he becomes provost, He's still a super devoted patriot. He knows how important this work is that it was doing World War Two and he knows it's just as if not more important during the Cold War. So what he does is he encourages students and professors to leave Stanford and go set up companies and work for defense firms and work for the military not to make money but to be like in the nation's service.

1:05:28take the research and the people who are doing the research out start a brand new company he would try to help you find funding which at that point venture capital didn't exist so he was introducing you to customers who could sort of pre-order from you to fund your research and he basically believe that a commercial ecosystem leads to more innovation than one that is purely happening in academia and thus could better serve the needs of the nation.

1:05:57customer customer. Hang on to that thought for one second. If you were doing all of this 10 years before the university would have looked at you and said, what are you doing? You're encouraging this stuff to go away from us. Oh, it would have been career suicide. And I could do me a to do this. Instead, it's Stanford. It becomes the best thing you can do for your career because in terms of mind, it's the best thing you can do for your country. Okay. So that was number two. Number three, he carves off.

1:06:25a big part of the Stanford campus. Now, if you've ever been to the Stanford campus, my god, I was so lucky to spend two years there. It's like paved and gold. It's literally Shangri-La. They have so much land. It's the most beautiful, like, idyllic place in the world. And, like, 80% of the land is still undeveloped. Yeah, they own, like, all the way out to the ocean, I think. Like, it's crazy. So he carves off a part of the Stanford campus and develops it to be leased out as commercial space to corporations and the government.

1:06:54to come people to start companies companies to come to build the participate on this ecosystem all right there on campus. It's initially called the Stanford Industrial Park. Today it's called the Stanford Research Park. It still exists if you've ever been there. It's basically all of the office buildings up and down Page Mill Road in Palo Alto. So it's.

1:07:16HP and Hewlett Packard. We'll talk about that in a minute. It's Tesla's landlord today. It's VMware. It's where Xerox Park was. It's where next was in Steve Jobs. It's where Facebook's office was for a while. This is where Theranos was. Oh my god. So you might be listening like, well, this is cool. Maybe I knew this stuff. Maybe I didn't. This is really fun Silicon Valley history. What does this have to do with Lockheed? Well, one of the very first tenants of Stanford Industrial Park. Then you were talking about customers, customer, who would go on to become the single largest employer in the area in Proto-Silicon Valley by a huge margin was a new secret division of Lockheed. This blew my mind. His secret division is called the Lockheed Missile Systems Division. Later to be renamed the Lockheed Missiles and Space Company.

1:08:15and what LMSC Lockheed Missiles and Space Company did. I honestly think it is bigger impact to the country, to the world, and certainly on business to Lockheed and Silicon Valley than Skunkworks. This story is of a scale I don't know that we've ever really told unacquired. There are a lot of Skunkworks devotees, David. That is quite the assertion to say that this is a bigger deal. Well, let's talk about it. Listeners, you can judge.

1:08:40They patterned themselves after Skunk Works and took so many of the Skunk Works management principles up to Silicon Valley. I was reading Skunk Works and I was like, oh yeah, so many of these principles, they sound like Silicon Valley principles. Well, there's a reason for that. Okay, so Lockheed makes the decision to start this new missile systems division in 1954, but it becomes so much more than that. Obviously, this is also top secret stuff, just like Skunk Works.

1:09:09So just like Skunkworks, they set up the new missiles division in Burbank, also in an unmarked building. They literally just copy-paste Skunkworks right there in Burbank. And so it starts in Southern California. It does. But there's two problems with that. First, it's kind of unwieldy for a big company like Lockheed to have not one, but two super secret unmarked divisions right there on the main campus.

1:09:36You know, that aren't supposed to know about each other or anything else going on, like you start getting into weird territory quickly. But it's important that the missiles division did start there because they took, as I said, a lot of Skunk Works management practices. The bigger problem is that it turns out that building missiles is a very different discipline than building airplanes. Because unlike airplanes, you don't have a pilot in the missiles. So you need missiles.

1:10:05guidance systems. And that means that you need radar, and you need computing. And those two things are not what Southern California is good at. But you know what's really good at those things? Fred Turmin, up at Stanford, and everybody that he's recruited literally the best minds in the world at all of that, who are now at Stanford and who are now being encouraged to go spin out and start companies who might just be subcontractors.

1:10:33to a big missile system that could trap the build. Interesting. And this is cool. This is a part of the research that you did that I don't know much about. Yeah, this is great. So the next year, in 1955, Lockheed moves the missile systems division out of Burbank and up 101 to the Stanford Industrial Park. The very same Stanford Industrial Park that Fred Turman just carved out of the Stanford campus and developed.

1:11:02on Page Mill Road. And Lockheed becomes one of the very first and biggest tenants of the Stanford now Research Park and is still there to this day. Wow. Now, they can't actually do everything they want to do on the Stanford campus. You're not going to build a missile and test it on the Stanford campus. So Lockheed pretty quickly after they established themselves in Palo Alto, they also buy 275 acres just down the road in Sunnyvale, and they build a huge campus there, 137 buildings. So when Lockheed buys this, the population of Sunnyvale is less than 10,000 people. What? Lockheed built Sunnyvale. I didn't realize that. Wow. So how many people would eventually work in Sunnyvale at Lockheed? So by the end of the decade in 1959, just four years later,

1:11:58Lockheed missile systems employs almost 20,000 people in Palo Alto and Sunnyvale. And a few years later, by the mid-60s, they would employ 30,000 people. This makes Lockheed by far the largest employer in this brand new Proto Silicon Valley. I mean, remember, I just said Lockheed built Sunnyvale. You think of Sunnyvale, Silicon Valley today, like Yahoo, and Intel and all that. Cisco, there was none of that Lockheed built it.

1:12:28Hewlett Packard was the largest tech company, computing company, Silicon Valley company at the time. Hewlett and Packard were students of Fred Turman and Fred encouraged them to spin out, start Hewlett Packard. They were the largest new tech company. They only had 3,000 people. One, two, three. Lockheed had 30,000 people. Whoa. Oh my God.

1:12:51It's funny story, I knew at least as of 2009 that the Lockheed campus in Sunnyvale was large because when I was interning at Cisco, I went on a run one morning and I was just sort of like exploring around and I ran into Lockheed's campus and I got chased down by a security guard who's like, well, you can't just run in here and I had my headphones in, I thought I was in big trouble. Yeah, they had this huge structure called the blue cube that has since been disassembled. It's not there anymore, but you need a big, hang her, but you're gonna build missiles it. And they end up building a lot more than missiles we're gonna talk about. And you mentioned they need radio and they need computing. Computing basically wasn't a thing yet. I mean, Shockley co-invented the transistor just a few years before started Shockley Semiconductor in 1955. The same time as Lockheed is coming to Silicon Valley. Right. And of course, Shockley is a predecessor to Fairchild Semiconductor, which is a predecessor to Intel. So like they've got Termin's radio background

1:13:51But there really weren't any people with compute experience yet. That was all happening concurrently all around them in Sunnyvale and Palo Alto. So we talked about this a bunch actually on the first Sequoia capital episode when we were telling Don Valentine's story. And at the time when we were telling the story, we were like, Oh, you know, Don, he was so legendary before he started Sequoia. He was the head of sales at Fairchild Semiconductor and the head of sales at National Semiconductor.

1:14:19And we sort of glossed over to we were like, yeah, you know, he was mostly selling to defense companies. Well, who do you think he was selling to? I mean, he was selling to defense company. Yes. Now, he was also selling around the country to other defense contractors too. Lockheed wasn't the only company that was working on missiles. But I think they were the only one that was working on missiles in Silicon Valley. Wow. And by God, did they buy a lot of product out of all these startups?

1:14:48And all of these silicon startups that are coming out of Stanford and coming out of Shockley and just getting sprung up right there in Silicon Valley. I can't believe that there were 10 times more employees at Lockheed in Silicon Valley than at HP in the late 50s. Yes, it is totally insane. And so many people came through Lockheed into Silicon Valley, including one Jerry Wozniak.

1:15:17who moved himself and his young family out to this new Silicon Valley to become an engineer at Lockheed Missiles and Space Company. That's right. Waz's dad, the reason that Steve Wozniak grew up in Silicon Valley is directly because of Lockheed Martin. Oh, that is awesome. No Lockheed, no Waz and Silicon Valley, no Apple. No Apple. Crazy.

1:15:46Not to mention there's a really interesting point here which is you wouldn't have this open commercial Spirit to Silicon Valley without Termin and without the belief that the right thing for America was for all these Companies to become companies instead of academic research or spread around in other parts of the country It creates the Silicon Valley ethos and creates Silicon Valley as the place where that ethos would thrive And it's worth pointing out for people who don't spend a lot of time in the Bay Area. This has absolutely nothing to do with San Francisco. Nowadays, it's sort of this big blended soup of companies that have offices in both places and you can drive or take the Tikal train between them. Yeah, that's a recent phenomenon. San Francisco is a completely different universe at this point that is in zero part responsible for the growth of Silicon Valley. Yeah. And before this time, before the 50s,

1:16:41There was no Silicon. It was called the Valley of Hearts Delight. That was the name for it. It wasn't Silicon Valley. Huh? Wild. Okay. So, what was Lockheed actually doing there? We talked about them working on intercontinental ballistic missiles, ICBMs, and missile defense systems. I think they probably did continue to work on that. But there were two projects that this new division of Lockheed took on that really changed history.

1:17:10both of them together became for Lockheed, at least, and the parent company by far the biggest driver of profits for the coming decades. And really, as we'll see, this division, you know, not Skunkworks, this division kept Lockheed alive. Lockheed would have absolutely died without this division. So what were these projects? One went up to space, as perhaps is.

1:17:36obvious and we foreshadowed and literally is in the name of the company, the Lockheed of Missiles and Space Corporation. And the other one went down under the oceans. So let's talk about that one first, because I think it happened first chronologically. So submarines had obviously been a thing since World War II and even before that back to World War I. There's lots of advantages to submarines during wartime. They're stealthy.

1:18:05They can basically travel anywhere in the world. You can stay hidden for long periods of time, especially once nuclear submarines are developed that can stay underwater for months at a time, self-powered. They're both a great offensive and a great defensive weapon during periods of active war. But during the Cold War, they're kind of useless because if you wanted to have a chess piece in position to strike a land-based target, If you could even do that at all with a submarine, you gotta get the submarine pretty dang close to the land, which means close to Russia, which means they know you're there, and that's a provocation. Unless somebody could maybe somehow figure out a way to fire an intercontinental ballistic missile out of a submarine and go up into the air and into space and then hit a land-based target far, far away. Now, this seems crazy.

1:19:00It's hard enough to make this happen from the ground. You're talking about doing this from the sea with all the like waves and the lack of stability. No way this could happen. This thing has to thrust through air after it thrusts through water. Oh, well you're making the leap already that you would fire it underwater. At first, when the Navy contracts Lockheed to work on this in 1955, to build the Navy's Fleet Ballistic Missile System, its FBM, The idea is they're gonna fire these things from the surface of the ocean. The submarines gonna rise up. They're gonna like stabilize it in water and they're gonna fire off a missile from the deck of a ship or a surface submarine. You could imagine another issue which is these things have rockets on them so you have to not destroy the launch pad which is the submarine full of American humans while launching it. Yeah, this is a big challenge. The reason that it was worth trying was that

1:19:57If you could create a naval-based intercontinental nuclear strike capability, it completely changes the strategic landscape of deterrence and first strike versus second strike and retaliation. So what we were really afraid of, we thought the Soviets would pursue a first strike policy if they felt they were able to.

1:20:23The way that they would do that is if they felt that they could in that first strike knock out all of our nuclear capabilities. If they could target all of our land-based ICBMs, incapacitate them, then we would be incapable of responding with a second strike and then they could blow up our cities and whatnot. Now, if all of a sudden you have a mobile naval-based missile system, Well, that completely changes the chessboard. It's quite the deterrent. Quite the deterrent. You can now pretty much guarantee, as long as you can keep a fleet of nuclear submarines operating at all times, that you can't take them out. And they can move around and be anywhere. And so if you launch a strike, they're going to launch right back. And first strike is now off the table. This is a huge strategic win if you could put this actually operationally in practice.

1:21:18The other medium, if you will, location that could change the dimension too for doing this would of course be space. If you had nuclear missiles up in space, that also changes the dimension. And this among many, many reasons is why when the Soviet Union launches Sputnik into space in October 1957, even though Sputnik itself was far from having nuclear ICBM capabilities, The Soviets getting to space first was truly terrifying. I can't imagine how disconcerting it is in an era that, you know, now there are tens of thousands of satellites orbiting the Earth all the time. When that was a brand new thing, when you could look up at night, if you could see Sputnik and you're like, oh my god, that thing any day now could have a new game that us. Right. Okay, so back to the sea. It turned out, like we were talking about a minute ago, that firing ICBMs from the deck of a surface ship be it a submarine or otherwise,

1:22:15bad idea, basically impossible. But firing missiles from under the ocean was doable, and Lockhe did it, with the help of Silicon Valley. So in December 1955, the Navy awards this contract to Lockheed. The name of the project was Polaris. People might have heard of Polaris missiles. Just over four years later, after the contract is awarded in 1960, the very first US nuclear ballistic missile equipped submarine set sail on its patrol and everything we just talked about is operationalized equipped with Lockheed Polaris A1 undersea fired nuclear warheads ballistic missiles could reach land-based targets up to 1200 nautical miles away from wherever the submarine was when it launched it and it was all built out of Silicon Valley.

1:23:11With many subcontractors all over the place. Right. I'm assuming Lockheed doesn't actually make the nuclear warheads, right? Like that was still happening in national labs at Sandia and all the places that were pioneered during World War II. Yeah. Lockheed did not make the submarines nor did they make the nuclear warheads.

1:23:30I think a lot of this work was done out of Sandia, which we talked about in the Amazon episode. Oh yeah, Bezos's dad worked there, right? Grandfather, Bezos's grandfather was the head of Sandia, which was in New Mexico, the military nuclear program, the division of the U.S. overall nuclear program. I think was out of Los Alamos, but Sandia was the military arm of it. Which weirdly, Lockheed For many years, actually had a contract to manage Sandia because there's some sort of strange partnership that happens where the federal government hires government contractors to manage national labs. To enable this strategic test piece, the key thing is the missiles. Nuclear submarines already existed. Nuclear warheads already existed. The challenge here was create a system by which you could launch a missile from under the ocean out of a submarine.

1:24:21Man, I just got to say it is so fortunate and insane to me that neither side ever launched. All the deterrence for all the scary things that could have come out of it and all the itchy trigger fingers and everybody getting close, it never happened. That is a big applause to humanity that we could have done this and no one did. Well, this is one of the things that I mentioned at the top of the episode. Doing this research sort of changed my mind on the war machine aspect of Lockheed and the military and the military industrial complex. But I think people really believed and I think there's a good chance this was reality. It was building all of these systems and advancing all of this capability that prevented it from being used. If we hadn't built this stuff, there's a good chance Russia would have done a first strike. Yeah, it's crazy. Okay, so Lockheed after four years successfully does the underwater ICBM launch.

1:25:20Yes, and then that quickly leads to more successor programs in developing the technology further. The Polaris becomes the Poseidon is the next program and then the Trident. The Trident missiles had a 5,000 mile range and carry a hugely destructive nuclear payload. Unbelievable. Terrifying. All right, so we just told this incredible story about LMSC taking Silicon Valley under the ocean. This program, you know, Polaris Poseidon tried in. For most people listening, especially if you're American, these names aren't surprising to you. You've heard of these programs. You are aware that the U.S. starting in the 1960s had nuclear submarines carrying interconnection and all ballistic missiles. Yep. It was, if you think back to the kind of the test game,

1:26:18It was in the government's best interest for the Soviets to know that we had these. The point was deterrence. In fact, we probably should have bragged about this even if it wasn't real. Right, maybe it wasn't. Who knows? We should have had inflatable subs floating around that we thought were nuclear. Maybe it's all the cover. Maybe all the buddy that went into Silicon Valley. No, I don't think that was the case. Either way, you don't want to find out.

1:26:43Speaking of cover, do you know about the things we did on top of the factories when we were building airplanes? Oh, yes. And Disney was involved. Yeah, starting way back in World War II, but I think continuing after that in the Burbank facilities at Lockheed, I know Boeing and the Seattle area and other places too, built basically these burlap cities on top of factories that looked like suburbs, complete with 3D cars and trees and stuff so that anybody who was creating a spy plane and flying overhead, would mistake our manufacturing facilities for something innocuous. Yeah, I think it was spy planes and also during World War Two bombers, if bombers ever made it to the West Coast, that they wouldn't know where to bomb. I'm pretty sure that Disney Imagineering was involved in creating these sets like they made for Disneyland. It's crazy how sometimes it's in our best interest.

1:27:37to make the adversary aware of our capabilities and sometimes we want disguised capabilities. It's really interesting. Super interesting. Okay, so remember back when we pressed pause on the Skunk Orch story and moved up the state of California up the coast to Silicon Valley, we said that when Gary Powers and the YouTube was shut down in May 1960 that supposedly this was the end of US observational capabilities in the Soviet Union, and that it was for about three months, but nobody do it. Well, LMSC is the reason that we got our eyes back in the sky. And you might know that eventually after the U2 skunkworks would create the next great spy plane, the SR-71, which we will get to, but that wasn't for a little while. So this intelligence gap was filled by this secret, not very well-known project.

1:28:36I think a lot of people in the military who did know about this stuff, this is heretical to say because it's so beloved. But I think the Blackbird was a decoy. We were getting everything we needed from space. We just didn't want anybody to know about it. And so everybody's now is like, oh, the Blackbird is such a shame the government shut it down. You know, it was never used to its potential. It kind of never needed to be because of LMSC in space. Whoa. All right. I'm listening.

1:29:05Okay. You got a lot of hairs on my arms. Yeah, I know. I'm getting mad over here. People are probably getting very mad. Here we go. So when you think about America and space in the US space program, you think of course about NASA, Gemini and Apollo, Mercury, Kennedy, putting a man on the moon, all that amazing stuff, which for sure happened and was happening. All of that was basic science research.

1:29:35Nobody working on those programs, public observing it. It would be crazy to think they were going to be actual applications in space anytime soon. There's no infrastructure like these are science missions. This is research. And even, you know, Sputnik on the Russian side, Sputnik was a research festival. It was like the size of, I don't know, like a bowling ball or a scientific it was a little bigger, but it was very, very simple. It was a long, long, long, long time before you went from those initial science missions to applications in space, or so everybody thought. Because in parallel, there was a secret US space program being run by Lockheed missiles in space corporation out of Silicon Valley. And in basically the same time frame as the initial

1:30:32NASA missions, the initial Mercury, I think, were the first missions. Mercury, Gemini, Apollo, yep. Yeah. Basically concurrently with that, they got a fully operational observational spy satellite system up into space and functioning at the same time. How did we launch them with nobody laid out? There was a cover story for what these things were. I think it was called the Discoverer Program. I believe the cover story was that this was like, life form research in space like they were sending animals up to space like monkeys to prepare for manned space flight. That was the cover story. They may have sent some monkeys up there, but that was not the point. The point was to get these reconnaissance satellites up to space. So the first program was called Corona and you should Google about it and read there's a great declassification document story that the government put out in 1995 when they.

1:31:28declassified this stuff and the Wikipedia page is pretty good. Yeah, I downloaded it and I have it open my computer. It's pretty crazy. It says secret. It has the classification on it and then it's struck through. Yeah. It's literally the document that was prepared in secret and then declassified. I think what the CIA and the National Reconnaissance Office does, I think they write these stories maybe quasi in real time so that there's documentation of all this stuff and then they stamp it secret and then it never gets out until it gets declassified? Wow. Just amazing. But on the declassification website, which we'll link to in sources, you can see a bunch of the pictures that the corona satellite took, including of the Pentagon. So you can see like something you know what it looks like, and you can see the level of fidelity that this 1959 satellite got of that. Ah, let's get into it. Okay. So the name corona, there are conflicting stories of whether it comes from the corona typewriter or the corona.

1:32:26type of cigar that apparently the pet and gone official that championed this program really liked. But we'll never know. It's all classified. So these satellites, like we've been alluding to, head cameras on them. The first one went up in August 1960. It's built in the years leading up to that by LMSC and then went up in August 1960. While everything else happening in space was, you know, research vessels, this first corona satellite had a camera system on it.

1:32:56that was able to photograph any ground location that it passed over in its orbit around the Earth at a resolution as low as five feet from space. These were film systems. Now, the U2 camera system did have a higher resolution than that higher ground resolution, but five feet was still plenty good. And more importantly, the corona system could take photos anywhere in the world on its orbit, and if you had multiple of these satellites up there, you know, you could pretty much blink at the Earth, or at least everywhere you cared about, pretty quickly. At basically any point in time, you know, they're spinning around the Earth. Like, yes, you can't do it in real real time, but like it doesn't take that long for the thing to fly around the Earth and then fly around again. Right. The very first corona mission, that very first satellite that went up in August 1960, produced greater photo coverage

1:33:56of the Soviet Union, then all of the previous YouTube flights combined. Five years of operating the YouTube program, one satellite in one kind of month-long mission, I think it was about a month before it decayed, the orbit decayed, got more than all of that. Wow. No need to fly a plane, no need to worry about getting caught, no need to worry about the Soviets knowing what was going on, no need to worry about being shot down, unbelievable.

1:34:21There's a crazy stat over 800,000 images would be taken by these satellites over the course of the program. They got an enormous amount of coverage. Now, you might be thinking as you're listening, you know, oh, I know how satellites and satellite imagery works today. You know, you got Google Maps, you got Starlink, you know, blah, blah, blah, Starlink's communication, but like communication. Yeah. How did they beam these images down from the ground? See, these were not digital photography. This was film.

1:34:50freaking photograph. So, you gotta get the film down from space is my point. Which they literally did. And how did they do it? They dropped it. Okay, so that's the craziest thing. They dropped from space a canister with film in it. Mind you, they can't mess up and expose the film and ruin it. This is very delicate film. They drop it in a canister from orbit. It enters the atmosphere and during all the heat and everything, It's not like you just shove it out of the satellite. They had retro rockets built into the film canisters to reaccelerate out of the orbit and move it down to go into the atmosphere. Right. Because if you just drop it out behind you, then it stays an orbit. It needs to decelerate its rotational velocity so that it does move closer to the Earth. Yes. It is in a custom designed canister called the film bucket that general electric designed. It would separate and start falling to the Earth.

1:35:48After the incredible heat and violent action of moving through the atmosphere, the heat shield that surrounds the vehicle is jettisoned at around 60,000 feet. So again, where the highest airplanes can start to fly and parachutes would be deployed. So you've got this film canister. This is my favorite part. This is so good. Coming down with a parachute.

1:36:12The capsule is designed to be caught in mid-air by a passing airplane towing a claw. The claw grabs the parachute and they use a winch to bring the film capsule into the airplane. It's like those claw games in the arcade, you know, like, oh, you pick up the, literally they had a freaking C-130 flying around with a big ass claw to snatch this thing out of the sky. Unbelievable.

1:36:40You might say, what if the C-130, which by the way, Lockheed airplane that still flies today, the C-130J? What if the airplane misses it? Seems like that's a pretty reasonable probability when this thing's falling from space and you're trying to catch it with a moving object. It can land at sea and there's sort of a self-destruct mechanism where there's a salt plug in the base that dissolves after exactly two days, which if...

1:37:05That happens, then the film sinks forever to the bottom of the sea. So if the Navy can't retrieve it within 48 hours, the salt sort of dissolves enough. Because obviously what would the biggest disaster be would be if somebody else or the Russians got their hands on this and were like, holy crap, somebody's taken photos from space of us. Right? The whole thing is genius, crazy, and absolutely insane that it actually worked.

1:37:29I believe it wasn't just one C-130. I think they had a whole fleet of C-130s all flying around where they thought this thing was going to re-enter the atmosphere. You would need to. I mean, when you have a satellite orbiting the earth that fast that, I don't know what it is, mock 20 something, it's pretty hard to predict exactly where your tiny film canister is going to come back and land. And all this happened in 1960. Oh my god. So I'll told the Corona satellite program.

1:37:58LMSC also designed the Agina rocket, which was the kind of upper stage rocket booster that the corona satellite and other satellites feature satellites attached to. And I think they sort of pioneer the concept of a second stage, like we need a first stage to get us up and then we need a second stage to get us to a very particular orbit that we care a lot about being in. So that system of the corona and the Agina was the first spacecraft in history to do all of the following things.

1:38:28Achieve a circular orbit. Achieve a polar orbit. Be stabilized on all three axes in orbit, because you've kind of needed to be stabilized if you're going to take photos at five-foot resolution of the ground. Be controlled by a ground command. Return a man-made object from space. Propel itself from one orbit to another. By the way.

1:38:52They returned 39,000 man-made objects from space. They took 2.1 million feet of film of photographs in 39,000 cans. I mean, any one of those things that I just mentioned, if this weren't a top secret black classified program for what three and a half decades, we would be all over the history books, and as is like nobody knows about this stuff. Yeah.

1:39:17It's the first obviously mapping of earth from space. It's this first stereo optical data from space. It's the first reconnaissance program to fly a hundred missions at all, let alone one in space. I mean, this thing operated for 12 years. Yeah, crazy. So corona would then lead to three follow-up programs that we know of. I'm certain many, many more, but there are three follow-on ones.

1:39:41that LMSC did that have been declassified so far. Some of these only vary recently. So the strategy of the program evolution over time followed the four stages that we know of. First, it was what they called see it. That was Corona. Just period. Can we see the Soviet Union from space? Corona proved that. The next phase was can we see it well? And then the phase after that was can we see it all? And then the last phase, which is still a lot of The last phase is still classified, is see it now. So let's talk about all of these. Corona, like we said, was just see it, get photos. But the photos were at a worse resolution than what the U2 was able to achieve. In 1963, only three years after the first Corona satellite goes up, LMSC and the government launched the Gambit program. This is the see it well. So Gambits

1:40:41Max resolution still has not been declassified. We don't know how sharp it was. This thing launched in 1963, and it is still classified how good it was. But it has been confirmed that the resolution was under two feet, which was better than the YouTube cameras. Whoa. Less than two feet from space in 1963. Next was hexagon. Hexagon was the quote, see it all program.

1:41:11Now this is starting to eclipse a little bit my technical knowledge and I think there's also just less known about this because a lot of this is still classified too. I believe the hexagon satellites had longer orbit life spans and had more film capacity before they decayed and so I think they were able to kind of like see more longer. I think is what hexagon was. You basically would need larger format film with a wider angle lens if you don't want to increase your number of satellites. Yeah.

1:41:40I'm fuzziest on Hexagon. Then in 1977, they launched Canon, K-E-N-N-E-N, which this is still very classified. Some of it is out, so we can know a little bit about this. There actually was an incident in, I think it was 2019, when Trump was president. He tweeted a intelligence photo.

1:42:06That was just like this incredible photo of incredible resolution of something that happened somewhere, maybe in Iran, and he tweeted, like, oh, see? Like, it isn't what you thought it like. And people when nuts, people believe it's never been confirmed that this photo was from a future version of the Kenan program. Huh. So what was Kenan? Kenan was see it now. It's the first real-time space-based surveillance system.

1:42:34I guess maybe the first real time surveillance system period. I don't know. By 1977, there were enough communication satellites up in the sky and digital photography had come along far enough. The Canon satellites are like what we think about like Google Maps. Like it's real time digital photography beamed down via a ground link to stations in real time. Whoa. And Lockheed has to build their own digital workstations to process these photos, to display them, to manipulate them. I think these might have been the first or really early digital photo processing manipulation workstations that were sold to the CIA. I didn't know about any of this. Yeah. Lockheed built all this in Silicon Valley. Wow. By the way, you keep saying Google Maps, there's a fun piece of trivia that I'm curious if you know. Do you know?

1:43:29I think it was the code name, the original name for the corona program. Oh, keyhole. Yes. Yes. Which is one of the companies that Google acquired that became Google Maps. Yep. Different keyhole. Different keyhole. But I'm pretty sure Keyhole Inc, which became Google Maps, was named after this keyhole program. Oh, I very well could have been because it was 1995 when that was declassified. And I'm sure Keyhole was started after that. Yep. Just super cool. Along the way.

1:43:58LMSC also does a lot of pioneering work in weather satellites and they launch weather satellites because it turns out that most of Russia is under cloud cover most of the time so they got to know when you know the weather is going to be clear enough to look pretty awesome. Well, that's when you get into like all the synthetic aperture radar and all the other types of sensing that you have in satellites now that are not just the visible light spectrum in order to get visibility of stuff on the ground no rather the conditions. Yep.

1:44:27They're part of the positionally satellites that the military puts up and that goes on to be opened up to a commercial use and that's the GPS system that we use today. And of course, I'm sure LMSC is part of many, many other things in space that we still have no idea about. Wow. Yeah. One thing that we have a lot of idea about that they built that I had no idea until researching all this.

1:44:56So we're now in the 70s as this is going along and we'll come back and talk a little bit about this as we come back to Skunkworks here in a sec. But we're getting towards the end of the Cold War and this stuff is less urgent. Lockheed an LMSC, start moving into non-military applications or trying to, but LMSC gets a contract from NASA and builds the Hubble telescope. Did you know that? I did know that.

1:45:23And Martin Marietta, future Martin and Lockheed Martin, built the large orange fuel tank for the space shuttle, which took the Hubble telescope to space. That's so awesome. Different companies at the time. Now the same company. Yep. All right, listeners.

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1:47:17So if you're trying to turn AI ambition into real business outcomes and make it work safely, securely at scale, go check out servicenow.com slash acquired and tell them that Ben and David sent you. Okay, two other things that I want to talk about with LMSC before we come back to the Coda on skunk works and the blackbird and all that. One, I think I alluded to this earlier. LMSC listeners, you be the judge. The stories that we've just told is this more impactful.

1:47:47to America and the world than what Skunkworks was doing. Personally, I kind of think yes, but you know, maybe you can debate. What is undebatable is that LMSC from a business standpoint within Lockheed became the crown jewel of the company. Huh. Which isn't true anymore, or at least it's not their largest business today. Well, I think at times in the 60s and 70s and 80s, LMSC was the largest business by revenue. But almost through the whole time, It was by far the most profitable division within Lockheed. And at times when we'll get into Lockheed fell on some really hard times in the 70s. There were years where LMSC generated more than 100% of the profits of Lockheed. So all of the rest of Lockheed's conquests included was in the red, unprofitable, bleeding money, and LMSC was keeping the company afloat.

1:48:44Wow. And if you think about it, I guess one, like, just what they're developing and the scale of it and these contracts are huge, both under the ocean and up in space. Two, though, what they're doing, it's different than building airplanes. And I alluded to this when I was talking about, it's a different talent set. This is much more technology problems and computing problems that LMSC is tackling here. Yes, they're building missiles, yes, they're building rockets and all that, but the core value components of those rockets is computing and silicon and ultimately software and as we talk about all the time on this show like well that's really good margins definitely better margins than building airplanes so the stats I have this is from beyond the horizons which also is where a lot of the story especially corona came from during the 12 year period from 1960 when corona first launched to 1972 Lockheed as a whole

1:49:42did 26 billion in revenue over that 12-year period, and just 255 million in total profit, not a high margin company during that period. LMSC accounted for over a third of that revenue and 128% of the profit. So that's what I was talking about. Everything else in Lockheed lost money, or at least in aggregate lost money. And then during the early post-Coleboard period from 1983 to 1992, LMSC accounted for 46% of revenue, so growing percentage of revenue and 72% of profits during that 10 year period. Wow. It really is a completely different company today, and I want to save why as we drift toward today and analysis and all that, but that's crazy how big the LMSC business was at the time. It was a great business, just from a business standpoint. So the other thing I want to talk about before we come back to Skunk Works is LMSC's operating

1:50:40principles in philosophy and so much that was built off the shoulders of skunkworks and a lot of the guys in the YouTube videos that I found talk about this, their philosophy though, they codified into seven tenets. So Kelly had his 14 rules. LMSC had seven tenets. And most of them are very similar to the skunkworks rules. We'll link to an image of them in the show notes.

1:51:07One of them though that I want to highlight and discuss that to me stands out as different from Skunkworks is tenet number one. And that one is focus on a threat-based need. And I think that's really interesting. Huh. To me, when I read that and thought about it, that element is missing from Skunkworks and Kelly's philosophy.

1:51:33This is conjecture here. There's no skunkworks book about LMSC, so we have very little information to go on. But if that really was tenant number one for the company, I think you could maybe extrapolate that a little bit to the market context is really important for what you're doing and don't lose sight of the market context for what you're building. Kelly's philosophy of all that matters is rapid delivery of superior products.

1:52:02Nowhere in that statement is their room for the market. Well, who decides what's superior? Maybe a small number of people want this, but do a large number of people want this. Like, how important is this? Obviously, what Skunkworks was doing was really important. Or so they thought, I mean, if they knew about this robust buy satellite system. Well, this is the argument. Maybe it wasn't that important. Maybe the Blackbird was a decoy. Okay. We have not talked about the SR-71.

1:52:29Can you please take us back to skunkworks? I'm like, Diane from my mock three airplanes and ribbon engines here. Okay. Let's do it. But keep that in mind, though. A threat-based need. Was there a threat-based need for the SR-71? Maybe. My computer wallpaper needs to exist, so that's a need. Oh, there was a market need. Was there a threat-based need? Okay. So skunkworks, the greatest airplane ever built. Gee, it sure would be nice if we had a plane that couldn't be shot down. So, when Gary Powers is shot down in May 1960, of course, as you would expect, the CIA and Skunk Works is already hard at work at the successor airplane to the U2. Everybody believes it's kind of a miracle that they were able to fly for five years like they did. They knew that this day was coming when the Russians would be able to shoot it down. So, as we talked about, the U2's primary

1:53:28Defense as it so happened wasn't intentional, but as it happened in practice was how high it flew. It was obviously trackable on radar. 70,000 feet. Yep. It's not like you could evade enemy fighters or missiles in this thing. It had 100 foot wingspan. It turned like a school bus. It was how high it flew. And then all of a sudden that was no longer defensible.

1:53:52So it's not very fast and it doesn't fly high enough to evade missiles, so kind of useless. Yeah, so if you remember back to the original spec for the program, there were three sort of vectors that were possible for how you could operate a program like this. One was fly high enough. That's what the U2 ultimately did. There was also the fly so that it can't be seen by radar stealthy. We'll come back to that in a few minutes here.

1:54:22And then three, make it go so fast that even if they do fire at you, it just falls behind and then explodes miles behind your incredibly fast airplane. Yep. So, uh, that's the path they took. If you can't evade them, outrun them. Yep. It's like the Sonic the Hedgehog of airplanes. So, this program, if you know anything about the SR-71 Blackbird, you're like, well, that's a Air Force airplane.

1:54:51We're talking about the CIA here. The Blackbird was not a CIA airplane. The program that the Blackbird ultimately came out of was the A12 Oxcart. This was essentially the same airplane. We'll talk about the differences in a minute, but this was the CIA contract that they had come works working on. And it was yeah, the goal of make this thing so fast that whether they see it or not, they're not going to shoot it out of the sky. It has an even better camera. I think also designed by Edwin Land and It can get these incredible photos flying really, really fast. Yup. And to be able to avoid surface-to-air missiles, that basically meant that the specs for this thing were that it had to go Mach 3 or faster. Now, to outrun any missiles, it had to do that with a pilot. There had to be humans in this thing. Faster than Mach 3 is faster than 2,000 miles an hour. If you fire a rifle,

1:55:50That bullet doesn't go Mach 3. If you're standing on the ground and you pick up a rifle and you shoot it and an SR-71 flies over your head, the SR-71 will beat the bullet. Yeah, it goes about two-thirds of a mile every second. This thing also is not very good at turning as you would imagine. So there's a fun stat about the SR-71. It cannot turn around in the state of Ohio.

1:56:17It's turn radius to change direction by 180 degrees is a wider turn than the state of Ohio. Oh, wow. It's decommissioning mission just to show off how fast it ever went was one hour and five minutes from LA to DC for being placed in the National Air and Space Museum. Yep. Coast to coast in an hour. Wow. And I remember being a kid looking at this thing. Like, well, why didn't we commercial then, like, You can't commercialize this thing. You got to be in a space suit to fly this. Totally. It flies at 84,000 feet. Up looks black to you. Straight basically looks black to you. You can see the curvature of the earth. You can't navigate really by earth-based landmarks because the earth-based landmarks are moving by you too fast. So the best you can do is be like, the Rockies are in front of me. Oh, the Rockies are behind me.

1:57:13And that's not terribly useful. So they had to invent a new navigational guidance system that sits on the top of the plane R2D2 style looking like an astromec from Star Wars to navigate by the stars. So great. I mean, it is like 50 concurrent miracles that went into making this thing possible. And hopefully this is obvious, but just to make the point again, you know, some of you might be sitting there being like, well, you just told me about how the sister company, LMSC.

1:57:41did all this amazing stuff in space. You go a lot faster than that to get to space and whatnot and like, yeah, but you don't have humans on there. So a pilot's got to fly this thing. And these are rocket engines, either jet engines that they figured out how to make go Mach 3. Yep. Okay. So when Skunkworks and Kelly and Ben Rich and everybody sit down to work on this, the current state of the art fastest plane at the time. This is late 1950s when they start working on this.

1:58:10is the McDonald Douglas F4 Phantom, which is able to hit just over Mach 2 with its afterburners on. So not sustained flight, like when you punch the afterburners, it can barely touch Mach 2. And the F4 itself was only a bit faster than the Skunk Works built F104 Starfighter that Ben you mentioned earlier, which was the first Collier trofe for you that Kelly Johnson won. So the idea that you were gonna achieve cruising speeds like sustained speeds above Mach 3. This is a big piece to bite off here. Only a handful of planes have ever been able to do this since. And I'm pretty sure no other plane has been able to do this at cruise speed without engaging after burners. It is still to this day unless there are classified programs we don't know about the highest and fastest humans have ever flown without rocket propulsion. Yes. Okay, so how are you going to do this?

1:59:09The only way you can do this in a jet-powered plane is to essentially design something that can run with afterburners on all the time. Like they're not afterburners, they're just burners. It's how the thing goes. To do that, you a required a tremendous amount of fuel, and b, you also produce heat in doing so that's like rocket level proportions.

1:59:37Skin of the airplane gets to 500 degrees Fahrenheit. The area near the engines on the airframe itself gets almost to 1,000. Yes. And the engines, I think, inside the engines get to close to 3,000 degrees, I believe. So they had to build the whole plane out of titanium to make this work. Which was a metal that no one had ever built a plane out of before. Right. This is really funny.

2:00:02There wasn't enough titanium in the United States to build all these blackbirds or raw titanium that they could easily source. There happened to be mines somewhere else with a bunch of titanium. So, the government and Lockheed set up a bunch of dummy corporations in Europe, like European incorporated dummy corporations. Yes. And they source a large amount of the titanium that goes into the blackbirds, the A12s and then the blackbirds out of the Soviet Union. Too funny.

2:00:30And by the way, you can't machine titanium with regular tools. Right. Titanium is so hard that it will damage your tools. So they had to machine new tools for the Blackbird itself out of titanium in order to manufacture the titanium plane. I feel like it's like a diamond-cutting facility or something. Totally. And I think Trid- additional materials like aluminum would lose its strength around 300 degrees so they actually need a different material otherwise the whole plane would just dissolve when it got that fast. Amazing. So there's another funny thing here which is metal expands when it gets hot and normally your airplane materials don't get that hot because you're not going that fast so it's fine if the metal expands a little bit.

2:01:18Except when it's getting this hot, the panels, the skin of the airplane, is going to expand quite a bit. So that means if they expand a lot, you have to leave a lot of room, so how do you leave room? So what they want it to do is fit together really snug while the plane is flying, which means the panels have to fit together kind of loose when the plane's not flying. Ben, are you telling me that the blackbird had panel gaps? The blackbird had panel gaps.

2:01:48And to add insult to injury, there are a variety of reasons they decided not to have custom fuel tanks. They literally just made the skin of the aircraft the fuel tank itself, so you didn't need sort of multiple. You needed it to be light. And you needed a lot of fuel in there. Right. And so when it was on the ground after you fuel it up because there's gaps in the fuel tank, it would just leak fuel while it was sitting on the ground. So to solve this problem, They went to Shell and had a custom fuel created for it that was not flammable on the ground. Like you could smoke a cigarette next to it and it wouldn't burst into flames because after you fuel this thing before it took off, it's just gonna leak fuel all over the tarmac. Oh my god. This is one of the reasons why it is maybe spoiling it a little bit but to flash forward. The Air Force hated operating these things. Yeah. I mean, it cost I think $300 million a year just to maintain these things.

2:02:44These were beasts from hell in every sense of that phrase. The good and the bad. Yep. Okay, so that's some of the materials challenges. Another problem was on the engines. So the most advanced jet engines in the world at the time was the Pratt and Whitney J-58. And I believe actually they weren't even able to get the J-58 in the first A-12s and then only later in the Blackbirds. Did they put it in?

2:03:14And we should tell people the Blackbird, the SR-71 was the two-seater air force version of the single-seater, a 12-CIA airplane. Yep. So even the J-58s couldn't produce nearly enough thrust on their own to get to and sustain the Mach-3 Plus speeds that they needed to hit spec. In fact, at least according to Ben Rich in Skunkworks, they could only produce about 25% of the thrust required. So Ben...

2:03:43leads a team that engineers the spike inlet system. So if you're looking at a blackbird and you look at the engines, they've got these like cones in front of these spikes, these big spikes. I mean, I'm sure everybody listening has seen a photo of blackbird. If you live in Seattle, go to the museum of flight. There's a handful of these at various museums around the country. You owe it to yourself if you have not seen one of these things in person. It's just one of the most amazing objects ever created ever.

2:04:11But these cones, what do they do? So the engines get the thing up and then once it's up in the air the cones expand and retract first suck in and then compress and then super heat massive amounts of air that they then mix with fuel in the engines and ignite essentially this is the world's most badass supercharger.

2:04:38Evergreen. These things are super chargers. That's what they are. This bike system is a supercharger for the engines. It provides three quarters of the thrust needed to get to mock three plus and sustain it. Unbelievable. Obviously, Dave and I are fanboying this thing. It's really easy to feel good about this airplane because it also never carried guns. It only carried cameras. You couldn't shoot bullets out of it because it's faster than the bullets. Right. But they did consider I think Kelly and the skunkworks team were really advocating to build a tactical aircraft that was based on this or bomber and that never happened. So every version of the SR-71 or their early prototypes of the Archangel or the CIA spy plane, they're only ever badass airplanes that carry cameras and go really fast. Yeah. Yeah. So fortunately, you know, Skunkworks and the CIA had started working on the A-12 Oxcart before Gary Powers was

2:05:36shutdown. It takes quite a while to engineer this beast. They start test flying it in April 1962. Of course, at Area 51, where else are they going to do this? Once they start test flying it, that's when the Air Force finally gets interested in the project. And it's like, oh, we want our version of this. And that's how the Blackbird comes about fun little bit of trivia within the Air Force and the Pentagon. The project originally was called the RS-71. Yes. Not the SR. And the SR-71 is strategic reconnaissance, but it ended up being backwards. Yeah, so funny. It happened because President Lyndon Johnson actually announced the existence of this thing in a national speech. And during the speech, he calls it the SR-71 instead of the RS. There's some speculation that it wasn't that he messed up and made a mistake, but that his speech writer

2:06:31Wanted it to be called the SR 71 and intentionally modified the speech who knows what is relevant though post Cold War politics become a huge thing here. So once Johnson says this Nobody is willing to contradict the president So skunk or X has to go and like redo all of their documentation for the whole damn thing You can imagine Kelly Johnson's reaction to this. Yeah So the first official flight of the Blackbird happens on December 22nd 1964. It reaches a top speed of Mach 3.4. God. The airplane wins Kelly, his second Collier trophy. I mean, still to this day, people lose their minds over this thing and it's stunning. It... I believe has never been shot down. There were some accidents in...

2:07:22test piloting, but yeah, it's never been hit by an enemy. I think it took four years to ever even be detected by radar for the first time, all the way until 1968. It has played roles and surveillance in Vietnam, Korea, Arab Israel conflict in the 70s, obviously the USSR. There's stuff you can find out there on the internet. Obviously, nobody really knows, but supposedly, according to internet law, over 4,000 missiles have been shot at Blackbirds and none of them have ever hit.

2:07:51It is just such an awesome badass thing to say the way that we're gonna get around getting shot down is just to be faster than the missiles and be right about that. It's especially awesome when you know as you know the highest levels of the government. It's kind of all the decoy anyway. You're getting what you need from other sources. Man, so this is a good time to talk about that. You keep saying that I had no idea until you brought that up what an hour ago. I think you're right. Yeah.

2:08:20Well, here's one area where I'm wrong. I do think that statement is mostly right, but you could argue with it and people do and did in that satellites are not real time. You know when they're coming. You know when they're about to fly over. If you need to instantly get somewhere that maybe you don't have the right orbit coverage for or where there's a dynamic situation, if an enemy knows that a satellite is flying over it and doing reconnaissance. They know when the satellite is going to fly over so they could hide stuff during those times. If you need full flexibility, you need a blackbird. So it does have a use. It's not like it's useless, but unlike the U2, which was everything, it's more of a niche use case here. So the blackbird doesn't fly today. Civilians are unaware of something that has flown faster.

2:09:13There's a crazy stat a little bit trivia about the SR-71. And this really puts into context how early this was and how strange it is that we've had nothing faster since. The SR-71 first flight was closer to the right brothers than today. Yeah, wild, right?

2:09:35It's totally wild. And I mean, this whole thing was built with slide rules. I had a very controversial tweet get a community noted where I said that it was before the invention of the desktop calculator. It's like mostly true. There's technicalities to it, but you know, Kelly and team basically did this thing independently of computers and calculators and figured out all the unbelievable aerodynamicism stuff about it. Of course, there's also it's the first stealth airplane.

2:10:04I mean, that's the other thing that we didn't talk about is the reason this thing wasn't detected on radar for four years because they figured out how to fly and start to evade radar. Yeah. Now, I don't know the details of stealth with the Blackbird. I imagine a big part of that was the height, was the altitude and the speed of it. It's not that I don't think it's more around the shape because radar will just go unimpeded, you know, out into space.

2:10:32There's famous stories about detecting where people's radar transmitters are by bouncing them off the moon and figuring out the patterns of bouncing off the moon. It's more I think that the SR-71's bottom was one of the first airplanes with a flat bottom rather than a rounded fuselage. And so imagine I'm shooting a set of waves at a round sphere in front of me. Well, some of those waves are going to bounce back because some of that sphere is exactly perpendicular to me broadcasting it. There's one particular point that's exactly perpendicular. And I can kind of tell the radius of the thing by how I'm detecting waves that are bouncing back at me. But if it's all flat,

2:11:15There's only one very specific angle for which I can shoot waves at it where I'm perfectly perpendicular. And every other angle that I shoot radar at it, it's going to bounce off and not come back to me as a transmitter. You'd need transmitters coding all over the earth to figure out where all those waves are bouncing. And so by making the bottom flat, they made it so that if it was truly flat, then there's only one exact moment in time that a given radar transmitter is useful.

2:11:43Uh, that's cool. They also did a whole bunch of work around making the rivets exactly flush with the skin. So it basically didn't have a whole bunch of rounded parts so that could risk bouncing radar waves back at the transmitter receiver. Super cool. Keep in mind for a minute from now, that idea of flat surfaces and planes and radar planes, not airplanes, planes like a flat plane and surfaces. Okay. To close out on this amazing.

2:12:12Airplane. That's basically sad in a lot of ways. It's hugely expensive to build these things. $33 million per plane, which was a lot back then. I mean, plates now cost more, but a lot. And then, as I said, $300 million a year just to keep them operational and run the program. You couldn't use it as a fighter or a bomber. It was only reconnaissance. It's not super popular with the military and the Air Force. They kind of don't like it.

2:12:38as an operational plane. Right. It's a lusty airplane. Yes. It's not a daily driver. Let's put it out. In 1970, the Pentagon... cancels further orders and the order skunk works to destroy all of the titanium tooling for it so that no more can ever be built. I assume that so that it doesn't fall into enemy hands or something like that. And it's like we're serious about telling you we're done ordering these things and we don't want political maneuvering to spin it back up. So we're going to be prohibitively expensive for you or for anyone to ever think about starting the program back up. Yep. The existing ones do stay in service, but obviously this is like a big blow to

2:13:18Skunk Works revenue. They're not producing these things anymore. On the back of that, Skunk Works has to do layoffs. The Skunk Works division after the contract is canceled in 1972, two years later, Lockheed and Skunk Works lose the bidding for the F-16 fighter. General Dynamics wins that. Ironically, the later Lockheed, right before the merger with Lockheed Martin would acquire General Dynamics fighter plane business. So it does come back into Lockheed.

2:13:47and it is still, they call it out in their earnings like today. They're still selling F-16s today. So here's what's interesting about this contract and Lockheed and Skunk Works losing it. This is an example, I think, of to that first tenant from LMSC of threat-based need and really, you know, need market need. Maybe you want to adapt that to. Kelly Johnson, as amazing and a genius as he is, is a very stubborn man. And the...

2:14:16Stated purpose, the Air Force's goals with the F-16 was to have a cheap fighter. It didn't need the best. It needed to be cheap and that they could make a lot of these and they could use them all over the world. That's not Kelly's MO. And so he and Skunk Works bidding on this project, they kept trying to give the Air Force what they didn't want. And they lost it. Like the idea of Skunk Works losing a contract, this is crazy. And in particular, He didn't really want to play ball the way the government was trying to bid out the contract. He looked at the requirements. He said, this is stupid. I'm going to design you an airplane that I think meets the needs of how this will be used in the field, rather than what these technical specifications say here. And over the long run, he was right. As the program evolved, the specs actually changed to what Kelly decided to build their prototype airplane to do. But the prototype they produced was not in spec for the original.

2:15:12F-16 requirements. And by this point in time, to bring some context back of where the country was, you know, we're now basically post-Vietnam war. The Cold War is for sure still going on, but it's not the same level of urgency in America's minds as it was back in the 50s. Not to mention, all military muscle is very unpopular in America.

2:15:37And so any politicians who are seeking to sort of expand the might and budget and proactivity of the military are facing a lot of resistance at home. And that is probably a good thing for our society that that was happening. And at the same time, it made Kelly kind of a relic. Yeah, totally. And this is not a challenge that LMSC, at least with the corona project had to face because nobody do about it. Right.

2:16:05This is a really bad time for Lockheed. This is the period like we were talking about at the end of the LMSC chapter where it's LMSC that keeps the company afloat. Kelly retires. Kelly retires. Bed rich takes over as head of Skunkworks. Skunkworks is doing layoffs. Lockheed really stupidly decides to try to get back into the commercial aviation business. L1011. They make the L1011, which by all accounts was a great airplane, but turns into a disaster project. They're trying to compete with Boeing and with McDonald Douglas here. The DC 10, I think was the McDonald Douglas competitor. Lockheed partners with Rolls Royce to make the engines right as Rolls Royce goes bankrupt and gets nationalized by the UK government. All told, we won't go into the whole history here, but the L 10 11 airliner project loses Lockheed two and a half billion dollars. And as we said, a few minutes ago,

2:17:03This is not a super profitable company. They don't have $2.5 billion in other earnings just sitting around to soak up the losses here. Yeah. At the same time, Lockheed also gets caught up in really nasty bribery scandals around the world. But these are nasty political scandals themselves. And basically Lockheed comes out looking, at least to the American public, like kind of a corrupt arms dealer.

2:17:31So what happens is Lockheed and lots of people would argue that this is just the way you needed to do business in foreign countries are allies that Lockheed sold these weapons to. In the Netherlands, in Japan, and in Saudi Arabia, it comes to light that Lockheed employees and contractors are paying bribes to political officials to win contracts. This actually brings down the Japanese Prime Minister at the time.

2:17:58This is a huge scandal in Japan on the order of like Watergate in the US huge scandal Sega actually makes an arcade game about it called I'm sorry About the prime minister at the time like so funny Lockheed also on the military side kind of the main Lockheed divisions Engaged with a couple helicopter projects with the military and then the C5 galaxy transport plan Those projects go horribly, they have huge cost overruns. The C5 at least, I think, does ultimately become a good airplane, but costs way more than the initial bidding. All of this conspires that, especially post-Vietnam period, the American public starts to view Lockheed as this corrupt vampire octopus military industrial complex squids sucking on America. Things get real bad. Lockheed's finances at the same time are so bad.

2:18:52They need a bailout from the government. So the government has to guarantee a $250 million loan to lock you to keep them afloat, mostly because of the L 10 11 disaster. It requires a vote of Congress to do this. It almost doesn't pass. This is real bad. Hmm. I didn't realize how dark it got there. It got real, real dark. And again, it was only the profits from LMSC that kept the company from probably going under. Hmm. So, okay.

2:19:20We've mentioned stealth a few times here. Fact of Skunkwerks. There is one more great Skunkwerks airplane and it is under the administration of Ben Rich, Kelly's successor. One last hurrah, at least for the traditional Skunkwerks organization. So there's a math paper published in a Russian journal around mid 1970s, right around this time, which I think Get published because the Russians don't really see anything of value in there. They don't really know exactly what these particular equations that are getting published could be applied toward. But somebody at the skunk works reads the paper and says, huh, I think all the ways that we've been thinking about trying to make an airplane stealth like the SR 71 with flattening the bottom a little bit and trying to use particular materials and paint and stuff like that. I think it's good.

2:20:14But if I apply these equations to make a stealth aircraft, then I think we can do something two orders of magnitude better than anything we've done before. And I think we can make an airplane go from looking smaller than it is like a bird on a radar to something like a baby on a radar or a ball bearing famously or a ball bearing. So that skunkworks employee was then 36 year old Dennis.

2:20:44overhalzer who was a mathematician and he like you said reads this paper and brings it to Ben rich who just six months earlier had taken over from Kelly as head of skunk works and he's told don't stick your neck out no one's getting the crazy amount of rope that Kelly had so prepared to just be blockheads. Yes, man. And we're going to use the skunk works for branding and marketing, but we're not doing anything too nutty in your little shop over there. And even Kelly himself, he's retired, but he stays on as an advisor. So he's still has his fingers and everything. He's so disillusioned at this point. He tells Ben Rich, he says, don't even pursue this. It's not worth it. Missiles are where the future is. Nobody's making planes anymore. Don't invest the money on this.

2:21:32And in particular because when you apply these equations to design an aircraft, the way you have to design it makes it incredibly not aerodynamic. If it works, it will be a thing that is invisible on radar, but Kelly sort of looks at some of the early sketches of what you would have to do to make this thing into an airplane and basically thinks that's not an airplane, that won't generate lift.

2:21:58He's such an aesthetic snob. He's like, that's not an airplane. We can't make it. It doesn't look beautiful. And it's not just that it doesn't look beautiful. It's that literally there's like only a hint of Bernoulli in there. The way that it's shaped is unclear that it will generate enough lift to lift itself. Yes, also correct. Or, well, I think the bigger problem was less about lift, although I'm sure that was a problem. But more about could you control it? Yeah. Could you fly this thing? So...

2:22:27What's being proposed here is basically an enormous looking cockpit, this big globular fuselage, and you can Google the F117A. The name is the Naitok. Stubby wings, these two little super thin tall tail fins. It looks super unstable, and the whole thing has basically zero round surfaces on it. It's faceted. I mean, it looks like a diamond. In fact, It's code name or I would say probably not it's code name but it's nickname internally was the hopeless diamond yes you know what this thing looks like if you aren't already intimately familiar with images of it I actually think it looks really cool totally but it doesn't look like it will fly or fly in a controllable way it looks like you made an airplane like a paper airplane and then you put a rock on top of it and you were like trying to get that thing to fly totally to me it looks like

2:23:21the planes in the first Star Fox game for the Super Nintendo, when Nintendo and other 16-bit game developers during that generation were trying to make 3D games with 16-bit hardware. And you didn't have enough processing power and polygonal power to make rounded shapes. So you had to have flat surfaces. Big ass triangles. Big ass triangles. That's what this thing looks like. It literally looks like not a Star Fox 64.

2:23:49A Star Fox super Nintendo. Right. So Ben Rich decides that he wants to put his career on the line. Yeah. And take a risk and make this so he goes to the Air Force. The Air Force says, well, you know, on the one hand, your timing is good. We actually also think stealth technology is worth pursuing. We have an active RFP out there. We didn't come to you guys because Skunkworks hasn't made a fighter plane in God knows how long. You guys just had layoffs. We don't like the Blackbird. Sorry, you guys are old news. And Ben Rich, like you said, he risked his career six months into the job, pursuing it at all. He risks it even further. He goes back to Lockheed corporate and says, I want to pursue this and make a prototype. Anyway, without a research contract, we're going to fund this internally.

2:24:47which this is not something that defense contractors do. We'll talk about this as we get into playbook, but it's not like a tech company where you do a bunch of forward looking R&D and then amortize it over a bunch of customers later. You go bid on a contract, you get that contract, and then you build the thing. It's so funny, you know, reading less so in the early history, but when you read about Lockheed today and the industry today, there's all this talk of the customer.

2:25:14The customer, there's only one customer. The DOD. The DOD is the customer. You know, it's like the Amazon, like, oh, the empty seat for the customer in the room. It's not a metaphorical customer. It is a specific customer. No, it's like, what is the Pentagon think? Which is a good and bad. They're unbelievably customer focused. Lockheed Martin doesn't build stuff unless the US government says I'll order it, which means they don't have to take a lot of risk. But on the other hand, they also don't get the upside from taking risk, typically.

2:25:42And this is how crazy this situation is. It is literally the opposite of what you just said. This is Ben Rich's neck on the line. This is skunkworks on the line. This is everything. So they go and they build a prototype. It's nicknamed to the hopeless diamond. The codename is have blue H-A-V-E-B-L-U-E. And I mentioned ball bearings earlier. They make a model of this thing, a wooden model. They put it up on a pole. They test it in radar range alongside the other prototypes for mother.

2:26:10contractors for a stealth fighter that the Pentagon has put out. And this thing is invisible. The way that the Air Force inspectors come up with testing it is they get a set of ball bearings of increasingly smaller diameters and they attach them to the nose cone of the wooden model at the radar range. And they see if you can detect the ball bearing or if it's blacked out by like this massive plane model behind it.

2:26:39And they can detect a ball bearing down to a diameter of an eighth of an inch. So the radar signature of this plane is less than an eighth of an inch sphere. It's unbelievable. The thing is all flat surfaces. So it basically bounces the radar everywhere except for the transmitter receiver that is actually shooting the radar waves at it.

2:27:01So will it fly and can you control it are still up in questions, but we now know that it is like, oh my god, radar invisible. Yeah. So out of that, the dark horse, Skunkworks wins the gotrack to build the Air Force's stealth fighter. They do. They solve the challenges you just mentioned and they solve them with computers for the first time or at least that we know of really the first time in Skunkworks history.

2:27:26the way you control this thing is with fly-by-wire, which I'd heard that term before, but fly-by-wire means that the plane's systems are controlled by a computer and when you move the controls as a pilot, you are not directly moving the mechanics. The computer decides how to translate your intentions into stabilized movements for the plane. Power steering. Exactly. Well, yeah, it's even more than it's like doing all sorts of stuff that you have no idea. Right.

2:27:54to make it do what you want to do. Right. I mean, it's a Tesla, basically. It's abstracting away your inputs and doing the thing that is optimal based on what it's pretty sure your inputs want it to do. Yep. So they win the contract. They start testing this thing at, of course, area 51. And the self-fighter really looks like an alien spaceship. I don't blame all these people with the binoculars who are pretty sure there's aliens. I don't blame them either. The Air Force starts taking delivery in 1983.

2:28:24of the stealth fighter from Skunkworks, they ultimately buy 59 of them of the F-117A Nighthawks at $43 million each. So that is two and a half billion dollars in revenue for a Lockheed, a time when they desperately needed it and Skunkworks desperately needed it. Huge win for Ben Rich. Huge win. The real combat debut for the Nighthawk is during the Gulf War, during Operation Desert Storm. So that's what six years that they keep it undeployed, where they have it, but the US government has decided that we want to save it. Well, where are they going to use it? We're not really fighting any wars. And this is a fighter. This isn't a reconnaissance plane. This is a fighter slash tactical strike plane, which, again, Skunkworks hasn't built one of those since, I guess, what the 104 star fighter? I think that's right. I mean, yeah, the F in F 117 is fighter. The SR 71 was not an F plane. So the plane is never

2:29:22really tested in combat of what it can do until Operation Desert Storm. And I remember watching this live when this happened. I don't know if you remember this, Ben, but I vividly remember when this happened the first night of the war Operation Desert Storm. Even this is broadcast live to the world. The US Air Force completely knocks out all of Baghdad's defenses and infrastructure.

2:29:51and the way they do it is with the night talks they came in under the dark of night no one knew they were coming they hit a bunch of the high-value targets and then these wars now tend to be these overwhelming force at the start and then long long drawn out battles after that but this set the stage for what the modern military engagement looks like yeah so a few quotes here that are in skunkworks First from the Secretary of the Air Force at the time, we learned that night the first night of the Gulf War. And for many nights after that, that stealth combined with precision weapons constituted a quantum advance in air warfare. Ever since World War II, when radar systems first came into play, air warfare planners thought that surprise attacks were rendered null and void and thought in terms of large armadas to overwhelm the enemy and get a few attack aircraft through to do damage.

2:30:43Now, we again think it's small numbers, and in staging surprise, surgically precise raids. And then another quote here, from one of the pilots that flew that night, to put it in domestic terms.

2:30:56If Baghdad had been in Washington, that first night, we knocked out their White House, their Capitol building, their Pentagon, their CIA, their FBI, and took out their telephone and telegraph facilities. We damaged Andrews Air Force Base, Langley, and Balling, and we punched big holes in all the key Potomac River bridges, and that was just the first night. So this thing is deadly. The Nighthog very much worked. The Nighthog flew 1% of the air missions in Desert Storm, but accounted for 40% of all.

2:31:25damaged targets. And so while this plane was a massive success for what it was intended to do, this is where I sort of want to stop glorifying some of the military might, the way that we did in the Cold War, which was like obviously for deterrent. This is when the foreign policy sort of changes a little bit in a way where you're yeah, people are dying here. Yeah. This is the incredible paradox of this. The most overwhelming And terrifying weaponry ever created and weapons capabilities ever created was never used and was created so that it would never be used. Right. It's fascinating. Yeah, totally. But here, this stuff is used and a lot of people died. For the F-117A, 10,000 people worked on this airplane the night hawk and kept the secret for 21 years until it was declassified. Wow. Crazy. Yeah. Let's just divorce any value judgments here for the moment.

2:32:24in terms of the airplane itself and Lockheed and Skunk Works in the company. While Desert Storm was on the one hand this great success story for the airplane. There's also kind of the end. That's the end of the Cold War. Yep. There is no doubt after Desert Storm and all the other things that happened in the following of the Berlin Wall by the early to mid-90s. It's done. And this success of the Nighthawk and success of the US military from the military standpoint during the Gulf War, you know, that sets the conditions to bring us to the modern era and Lockheed today, which is not Lockheed, but Lockheed Martin. And Boeing today, which is not Boeing, but Boeing and McDonald Douglas and this incredible era of consolidation. Right. And Northrop, which is not Northrop, but Northrop Grumman, and which very closely almost was part of Lockheed Martin, but got blocked by the DOJ.

2:33:22Yeah, and then you have Raytheon and General Dynamics, which have eaten their fair share of all the other competitors too. So the Gulf conflict, I think, ends in 91, I believe. And it becomes really obvious that the Cold War era of arms build up in the US is over. And defense budgets are going to shrink massively. And we need to start nuclear disarmament. We need to start destroying a lot of the nuclear warheads that we build. Right.

2:33:50and everybody in the industry knows it, and then it becomes super explicit. This is kind of an amazing event that happens in July of 1993. The then deputy defense secretary, William Perry, calls the CEOs of all the major prime defense contractors to a dinner in Washington, at which he explicitly tells them defense spending is going to shrink massively, you know that. And he instructs the CEO's present that you all need to consolidate and start merging with one another. We the Defense Department are no longer gonna be able to feed all of the metaphorical mouths at this table. And the CEO of then Martin Marietta soon to be Lockheed Martin refers to this dinner tongue in cheek as the last supper. And indeed it was. This is an amazing event. Literally.

2:34:47A government agency just told an industry what to do. This doesn't happen in America. Very explicitly. And this was rumored for a long time. People were like, wait, did this really happen? The US government instructed these big companies to become anti-competitive to all merge together. And this 1993 thing really kicks off an era of intentional government policy around combining companies. Yeah.

2:35:15which is very odd American industry and I think as we saw during the Cold War era America functions on competition and thrives in competition and here the government is saying less competition and in part they're basically saying look it's an acknowledgement that a lot of the times companies thrive because they're in growing markets and this is now a shrinking market and so what do you do if you want to maintain America's military industrial base, but you know for a fact the market is shrinking this year and likely every year for the next decade or two. Like what do you actually do? And so I think the intent here is to say we don't want to lose capability. We want the US to remain a country that has a whole bunch of people that know how to build this stuff. So if we need it, it's there. But

2:36:12You're gonna put each other out of business because we just won't have enough for you so you need to like merge and get more efficient so we don't lose the muscle but you know you all have real businesses real going concerns and this whole like so you don't lose the muscle thing That is unique on this episode versus any other episode, because the government is an indifferent player in almost every episode, every company that we talk about, but in this one, they're an extremely interested party where it is in the national interest. They are the customer. Right. It is in the national interest for us to maintain this capability, or so that's the sort of policy. Yep. So this sets off an amazing series of events, kind of similar to targeting back to the Alvia Mate episode when

2:36:56Louis Vuitton and what Hennessy merged, not because they liked each other, or because there was a business reason, they merged for like practicalities and to avoid dying and getting taken over by hostile raiders. In 1993, Lockheed buys General Dynamics fighter jet business that we already talked about, the F-16 business. And then in 1994, the big shoe drops, they announce a quote, merger of equals with Martin Marietta. That goes through in 1995.

2:37:26except they didn't merge everything about. There's two spin outs of the Lockheed Martin combination. One is there's another set of things that Martin Marietta does around minerals and mining. And so there's literally a Martin Marietta company that's publicly traded today that still exists that's around mining raw materials. Do you know this because you looked up the mine safety disclosures? I was disappointed to see that there were no mine safety disclosures in Lockheed Martin's financials. There's another thing that spins out called L3 communications, which is the set of things that won't be combining into Lockheed Martin. And this has actually become a fairly formidable competitor today. There's the five big primes Lockheed Martin Boeing, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics. And L3 is kind of growing, which is fairly unprecedented in this era of primes. But you might be saying, what is the L3?

2:38:19Well, there were three Ls involved in creating this company. One of them was the investment bank that helped combine them. Lehman Brothers. Yes. Frank Lanzar, Robert LePenta, and Lehman Brothers are the Ls. So the assets that do merge of Lockheed and Martin in January 1996, shortly after the big merger goes through, they then acquire the defense business from Laurel.

2:38:48for almost $10 billion. And then, as we said a minute ago, in July 1997, they attempt to merge with Northrop Grumman. Right. This is like Lockheed Martin sort of looks at the DOD and they're like, are we supposed to keep going? Yeah. Like you told us to do this, right? Yeah. They misread the T-Leaves on that one. That merger gets announced to every signed off the DOJ block set. I assume with tacit approval from the DOD on that. Yeah. I mean, the thing with the five big primes is they're all like very good at a certain bucket of things.

2:39:18And so if you start combining Lockheed and Northrop, which are the two that really kind of like bid against each other at this point in history, I mean, like the B2 bomber and the B21, there's often this face off between Northrop and Lockheed. If you combine them, then you actually do away with all competition. Yeah. Would have been so fitting, right, given that Northrop was a co-founder of Lockheed. All the way back to the beginning of the episode. So the DOJ blocks that, but also in 1997, Boeing merges with McDonald Douglas.

2:39:48becomes the giant that it is now. Do you know why that happened? Ooh, I do not. So we're going to talk here in a second about the F-22 program and the F-35 program. We'll skip over the F-22 for the moment just to hit this point. For the J-S-F, the joint strike fighter, F-35 program, this is going to be like the biggest ever military contract. And so it's really worth going for. And there's three companies that are worth gunning for in the mid-90s.

2:40:15There's Lockheed Martin right after their combination. There's Boeing and there's still independent McDonald Douglas. And McDonald Douglas is eliminated from competition. So it just comes down to Boeing and Lockheed as the two finalists within a month, Boeing announces that it's buying McDonald Douglas. Yeah, that was probably the end of McDonald Douglas once they got eliminated. Exactly. This contract is so big and they were betting so heavily on it that basically Boeing and McDonald Douglas after McDonald Douglas loses kind of need to just combine and size up in order to be a formidable competitor to Lockheed Martin going forward. Do you know the size of the F-35 joint strike fighter program like in terms of dollars? I do. It is a $30 billion DOD contract for 398 airplanes just for the US. We'll talk about that in a minute, but it was a prize worth going for.

2:41:09So yeah, if you lose this contract, this is literally life or death, whether you get this or not. Right. So losing this creates some extreme combination. And obviously, this sets the stage. I'm going to hand it over to you in a minute to lead the discussion of all the dynamics around this and the military industrial complex and defense contractors today, but to set the stage. I have a few quotes from Norm Augustine, who was CEO of Martin Marietta.

2:41:32where the merger happens, and Dan Telep, the CEO of Lockheed, is the first CEO of the combined company. Dan came up through LMSC, started there, worked in LMSC for decades, and then became the CEO of Lockheed. He's the first CEO of the combined company, and then Norm takes over for a few years after that. In 1987, Norm is a character. He's a serious character. He writes a Harvard Business Review article. I want to read a few quotes from this. Following the last supper, which he termed it the last supper. It became evident that there were only two potential survival strategies. One was to move into new markets—he's meaning commercial markets—a difficult and time-consuming option that has rarely succeeded, and as we talked about, definitely lucky tried that in the 70s and failed miserably with the L1011. The other strategy entailed something almost as difficult.

2:42:24Increasing market share in existing markets during a period of severely declining businesses. This is what we're talking about. And he says, here's what happened. He just lays it all out here. Lockheed soon purchased General Dynamics Aircraft Business and Martin Marietta purchased General Electric Aerospace Business. All told, our company comprises 17 previously independent entities, like independent until recent times as he's writing this. General Dynamics, Sanders, gold ocean systems, GE Aerospace, RCA Aerospace, Xerox Electrooptical Systems, Good Gear Aerospace, Fairchild Weston, Honeywell Electrooptics, Ford Aerospace, Libroscope, IBM Federal Systems, Unisist Defense, Lockheed, Martin Marietta, and Laurel. What a franken company. As we've been alluding to, these were not very profitable entities. So Lockheed, at the time of the merger, did 13 billion in revenue,

2:43:22and only 422 million in net income. Martin Marietto was slightly more profitable, did 9.4 billion in revenue and 450 million in net income. So both of these are like 10% or less net income margins. Yeah, and you basically have a situation where like all these contracts kind of go to all of the contractors.

2:43:44They just rotate around who's the prime on it and the prime makes the most money and then it has the most sort of sway and you don't want to be with a subcontractor. You'd rather be the prime contractor, but still this current military industrial complex is very all five players are basically in on all the big contracts and the government's very aware of that and the companies are all very aware of that and it's sort of reached the stasis. Yep. So Ben rich.

2:44:09Basically called it in 1992 when he was talking about this at the end of the skunkworks book about the end of the B2 bomber program, which by the way the B2 was kind of a make good when they gave that to Northrop Grumman. This is the stealth bomber. Yeah. By all means that should have gone to Lockheed Martin. They had the expertise from the F-117A Knight Hawk and I mean, this is the Lockheed side of the story, but they beat the B2 in a lot of the early competitions, but the government still gave the award to Northrop Crumman because there was some particular plane that the government said Northrop could manufacture a bunch of and then sell internationally and then change their mind. And so then Northrop was sort of left holding the bag. And so the Department of Defense being like, all right, you can win this competition. And who knows if any of these things are true? That's Lockheed side of the story. But anyway, Ben writes,

2:45:00Under the current manufacturing arrangement, for the B2, Boeing makes the wings, Northrop makes the cockpit, LTV makes the bombays, and the back end of the B2 airplane in addition to 4,000 subcontractors working on bits and pieces of everything else. Because the tremendous costs involved, this is probably a blueprint for how big, expensive airplanes will be built in the future. For better or for worse, this piecemeal manufacturing approach rather than the Skunk Works way, will characterize large aerospace projects from now on. With many fewer projects, the government will have to spread the work around across an even broader horizon. What will happen to the efficiency, the quality, and the decision making? At a time of maximum belt tightening in aerospace, those are not just words, but may well represent the keys to a company's ability to survive. Yep. So I think that sort of 1992 Ben Rich publishing the Skunk Works book

2:45:54Then the last supper, it basically works the end of skunkworks. Skunkworks is still a term that is used to describe a part of Lockheed Martin, but is it the skunkworks of the 50-60-70s? No, not at all. It's a completely different thing. And airplanes are just not built by small teams in this sort of auteur way, the way that they were in Kelly's era. So let's talk about some of these huge...

2:46:21programs that these large fleets of planes that the US government has bought in recent years. And we'll start with the F-22. And this gives you a sense of how freaking long these time frames take. So in 1981, the Air Force identified a requirement for an advanced tactical fighter to replace the F-15 Eagle and the F-16 fighting Falcon. So that sort of kicks off this, we're going to need some future thing.

2:46:46In 1985, the initial order, and I don't know if it's technically an order or how it sort of changes over time, but the initial pseudo commitment is for the US government to buy 750 planes of what becomes the F-22 Raptor for $44 billion in the total program cost. Wow. That gets revised down. Again, an airplane has not flown yet.

2:47:11Just before 1997, to $339 planes that's going from $750 to $339 for $62 billion in total program cost, that cost went up even though the number of planes dramatically went down to like half. I was wondering, I was like, did Batman speak there? Nope. Then...

2:47:34The F-22 program is over. That was a big thing in the Obama administration where he basically said, I'm gonna veto anything that comes to my desk for any more raptors. Like, we're done with this. But it's not as good as it sounds. No, it's not as noble. The final down from 750 to 339 is 187 planes delivered.

2:47:53They kept the $62 billion total program cost fixed. They managed to do that. So each plane ends up costing $360 million if you amortize all the R&D against the very few airplanes that they ended up making. And I mean, the F-22, much like the SR-71, there's not much we can complain about the plane. It is a bad-ass plane. In fact, for seafarer, Here in Seattle, the last few years they've had enough, 22, it is an unbelievable thing to see live. It performs maneuvers that just look alien. I mean, you just don't understand how the physics makes it work. It was all about air superiority. It was all about speed. They took all of the stealth lessons from the F-117 and put it into a very fast air dominating airplane. So the stealth fighter, the Nighthawk,

2:48:46was angular and looked like a super Nintendo Star Fox plane. Because the computational ability to model it at the time, it wasn't that you needed to have just flat surfaces. It's that you could have three dimensional rounded looking surfaces. You just needed to be able to model it for the radar signature. And computers weren't advanced enough at the time to be able to build a 3D modeled version of a radar stealth.

2:49:15structure. As they advanced, you are now able to do that in much the same way that in video games, you can now build life-like-looking 3D models out of the same polygons before. And so the Sega, I think it was the Model 3 arcade board that we talked about that was part of the real 3D revolution in video games. They used it in the arcade cabinets, right? The cutting edge, better than home consoles, computers.

2:49:44for to a race or virtual cop for to a fighter being the big one were on that. Sega co-develop those boards with Lockheed Martin in order to model the stealth airplanes. Yes. Unbelievable. That is insane. So fun. So what we can see here is that sort of the classic modern Gundogles probably the wrong word, but program gone awry where.

2:50:10There's a sensible total program cost for making a lot of airplanes and then as there's more pressure on the budget over time and there's cutbacks that happen, you end up making less and less airplanes and so it's really hard to amortize all the R&D costs and because of the way that these contracts work, it's not the tech company that's left holding the bag, it's not the contractor holding the bag, it's total cost plus.

2:50:34model, the company, the contractor, Lockhe, doesn't take any risk. And so who's holding the bag? The government's just paying more for each airplane rather than, you know, you could imagine if I was Apple and I sunk a billion dollars into developing the next great device and then no one bought them. I'm out a billion. But in this scenario, the government's like, look, I told you I'd pay that much. I'm paying that much. And unfortunately, I just can't spread the R&D across as many units. Wow.

2:51:02It's the R&D but also the tooling like we were talking about with the Blackbird. Totally. The infrastructure that you need to spin up to make a new airplane is a lot. Right. Following Ben Rich's sort of, hey, I think this is how airplanes are going to be made in the future. This happens in 46 states. The F-22 is built in 46 states. Yes. And it requires 95,000 jobs, which in Some ways is good. It's good to employ people. In other ways, the reason that some of these projects get funded is because it creates these jobs. And the reason that it's in 46 states is because that way, basically, every member of Congress is incented to vote for it. You're talking about pork barrel politics. Exactly. So I think Lockheed has become world-class at understanding where their bread is buttered.

2:51:59Yes, their customers, the US government, but the people approving their funding are individual people, these members of Congress who all want to get reelected. And so Lockheed spreads all these operations around. They employ all these people and members of Congress love nothing more than creating jobs for their constituents. And they hate nothing more than participating in a vote that eliminates jobs. And so Congress can kind of be simplified to 538 principal agent problems and contrast that with the team of, you know, what?

2:52:2950 engineers and a hundred machinists that built the U2? Yeah, of course, the F22 is a much more advanced airplane than the U2, but the size of the engineering challenge relative to state of the art technology was way less than the size of the U2 engineering challenge relative to state of the art technology. Yep. So then there's the next program that comes along, the F35 Lightning II, the Joint Strike Fighter. And so, you know, the mindset here is, well, We finally get it. We need to make a lot of these things and we're going to make a big investment. The government sort of pulls its resources and the DOD sort of works across the ARM services and they reach out to all of our allies, Britain and others, and they say what's like a common platform that we can develop so that we can get the best economies of scale out of this thing. That's the right thing for the American taxpayer. And so they come up with this idea for the F-35 Lightning II and they're going to make three models.

2:53:23and each of the models are for a different purpose. It's this incredible piece of technology. One of the three models can actually angle its engine down and take off vertically using its engine to reposition. I don't think they can use this in combat, but they can like use it to move itself around on an aircraft carrier and stuff like that. It's pretty incredible to watch videos of it if you just go search on YouTube. It interestingly has a different Aim and mentality than the F-22, it's less about being sort of the fastest plane in the skies and much more about having the technology and the visibility to have the best information at all times. It's sort of looking to the future of...

2:54:07information based warfare more than pure air superiority and speed. It's not all the way to like a drone future or a cyber security future, but you can see it drifting there. Really intense communications between a whole squadron of fighters, intense heads up displays with digital stuff for the pilots in the cockpits and in their helmets. And so it's sort of like the most technology forward plane program ever. So when I say Big, I mean really big in terms of the number of orders that are going to be placed. The initial order book is approximately 3,000 airplanes worth a potential $200 billion for the total program cost. Wow. In practice, it's kind of as pork barely as the F-22.

2:54:58Lockheed won the contract, but you know, it's subcontracted. It's peanut buttered out to all the other big programs too. The fuselage is Northrop Crumman BAA systems from the UK makes the rear fuselage. These pieces are shipped all over the globe before final assembly. So we've sort of expanded it even from pork barrel in the US to like which of our allies can participate in making this thing and thus benefiting in their area too. So here's some of the stats from Lockheed's 2022 annual report.

2:55:27The USA's F-35 order is a $30 billion order, just from the US $30 billion. That's 398 airplanes. That is $750 million per airplane. The Swiss have placed an order for $6 billion for 36 airplanes. Finland bought 64 Germany 35 Greece 20, the Czech 24, Canada 88, Poland 32, Lockheed Martin.

2:55:57This is an enormous win to win this program, and it is among us and our allies the largest ever purchase anyone has ever made for any piece of defense equipment. It's just so clear listening to you talk about that and contrasting it with everything we talked about in the story portion of the episode. This is a different world than the Lockheed of World War II and the Cold War and the military of World War II and the Cold War.

2:56:26It's very unclear to me what the threat-based need is here for this. Well, yeah, hopefully deterrence. Well, I guess, I don't know. I'm not a military strategist, but you know, you mentioned drones. Drones are a thing now, and they're a lot cheaper. Yeah. Put a pin in that for the moment. I'll finish rounding out the national defense budget just to put all this in context of what Lockheed sort of represents here.

2:56:53So our national defense budget in the United States is $800 billion. As you would expect, that's more than any other country in the world. It's three to four percent of our GDP. We spend on defense. Interestingly, it is down on a percentage basis of when you think about like the percent of federal revenue spent on defense, it's actually down. Back in the 60s, we spent half of our federal revenue on the military.

2:57:19And in recent years, it's fluctuated between 12 and 20%. So I think that's a little bit of a counter narrative to people that like to complain about how much money we spend on the military. Well, I guess it is, you know, to the point of consolidation in the last supper. The government was clear, we're going to spend a lot less. We're just going to spend it in a much more concentrated fashion. Exactly. The military industrial congressional Complex has really it's almost like what's happened to the banking system. We like pseudo-nationalize a few companies. There's these two big to fail entities that are like in cooperation with the government neither can really exist without each other and We just are okay with that. We say okay. That's how the system works and for better or for worse private industry and the government are tied at the hip there So a few more stats on this so that I said in recent years the governments

2:58:13DOD or defense spending is between 12 and 20%. The total US government budget is $6 trillion. So defense in there at $800 billion, clocks in, it's actually lower than social security, healthcare, and income security. Wait a minute. You said it was three to four percent. It's three to four percent of GDP, but it's 12 to 20% of the federal budget.

2:58:38So okay, we know that of the $6 trillion budget defense is less than social security, healthcare, and income security. It is more than Medicare education or transportation, just so people sort of know where it kind of sits there. So of that $800 billion, about half of the defense budget is spent on contractors, like Lockheed Martin, and of that $400 that's spent on contractors, $50 billion goes to Lockheed.

2:59:06They are the single largest recipient of federal spending as a contractor full stop. Wow. Not even just defense across all companies across all companies. Wow. I knew they were the largest defense contractor, but I didn't realize they were the largest government contractor period. Yep. Lockheed then Boeing, then General Dynamics, then Raytheon, then Northrop, then McKesson. Wow. You get to five before you even get to a health care. Wow.

2:59:33So you've got that 50 billion that goes to Lockheed Martin from the federal government. How much of their total revenue do you think that is? Oh, it's got to be like 90 percent. It's close. It tends to hover around 75 percent. So 66 billion dollars was Lockheed's total revenue last year of which 50 billion came from the US federal government. Makes sense. And I get the rest I would assume would come from foreign governments. Correct. Yeah, our allies.

3:00:02because the US government basically has a row for on anything and can put the kai bosh on Lockheed exporting to anyone. It's not terribly profitable. Their net income margin is 8% as we've been sort of talking about the whole time. You can sort of like see the cost plus pricing right there at the bottom line of the company. Lockheed Martin makes a bunch of money and at the end they only have 8% and that's basically contractually figured out. I think whenever one of these contracts gets bit out, the big defense contractor says i'm gonna slap eight nine ten eleven percent on top of it and that's gonna be the cost and that is exactly why their financial statements look the way they do is because that's exactly how the government decides to fund it which we should probably talk a little bit about the rationale for that i'm no expert in this and uh we should probably have an economist on acq2 at some point in time to talk about it but my understanding is that while

3:00:58Warren Buffett and Charlie Munker heat cost plus contracts. And in general, they set up terrible incentives. They are useful in cases where you don't know what the cost is going to be, but it's a incredibly important investment to make. And traditionally, that has been defense expenditures. Yeah. Like we need the U2. We don't know what the cost is going to be, but we need it to happen.

3:01:24Yep. We need the corona program. We don't know what the cost is going to be, but we need it to happen. And I think that is the rationale of how we got here. But it doesn't make sense when the government's buying more modern things. Like we're buying software as a service. Let's say I'm making Slack and I'm selling that to the government. If the contract to procure something that looks like Slack requires me to bid on it in a certain way. And I'm using Slack. There's lots of defense software you could sort of think about here. Palantir, for example.

3:01:52How do you let the government put out a contract to bid on that structure to a certain way when the way that you've decided to structure your company where you do R&D upfront, you're willing to take on some of the risk and then you want to sell something and amortize your R&D across all of your customers the way that every tech company does and the way that you sort of get operating leverage on your company. That doesn't fit in these gigantic cost plus contracts. In fact, what it ensures is you cannot get operating leverage on your company.

3:02:21No matter how large you scale, you will never have big fat gross margins that outrun your fixed costs. It's like the opposite of what every tech company is trying to do. Right. This is sort of the great irony in the government together with Lockheed really seated Silicon Valley. The modern Silicon Valley and the modern defense industry are in many ways kind of incompatible from a business model perspective. Right.

3:02:47Yeah, someone told us as we were preparing and researching this episode that Palantir figured out that what they had to do was sell laptops to the government that came pre-loaded with their software so they could sell a physical thing that had a cost of goods sold associated with it such that it could be bought in a cost plus way. And now I think this is probably changing and certainly there are smart people in the government that recognize this and their pilot programs to be able to buy software and technology.

3:03:16But if you look at some of the most successful Silicon Valley style startups that are selling defense to the government, you know, whether it's SpaceX or Android or others, yet they're selling hardware. They're not selling software solutions. Yeah, I'd say we're in the first out of the first inning and trying to figure out how to sell software to the Department of Defense, which is sort of scary when you think about it, because like I suspect, you know, most acquired fans will not find this controversial statement, but I think it's quite likely that modern warfare is going to occur more in software than in hardware, just like the Cold War occurred more in capabilities than actual fighting. Yeah, and it's probably fair to say I didn't talk to anyone at Lockheed. I'm not judging anyone who works at Lockheed, but I think the reputation in the industry is if you're a fantastic software engineer.

3:04:10You're probably going to go to a more interesting modern company and that's why you see the Anderls of the world and the Palantirs of the world kind of sucking up top talent that has this as a thing that they're really passionate about working on. Yeah, there's also a huge difference now versus certainly World War II but also the Cold War. The motivation of people who are going to work at Skunk Works, they were doing it out of patriotism for their country like the clear and present.

3:04:39threat of the Cold War was an extremely motivating factor. That's not there in the same way today. Very different time we live in. Very, very different to... Or at least there's a perception that it's a very different time that we live in. I don't really know for sure if it is or not. Well, which is so funny about this whole thing, the Cold War and now, perception is reality. Nobody really knew then, and nobody really knows now what the reality of the threat is.

3:05:05but the perception is what drives people's behavior and that's what drives the economy. It is in the government's interest for everyone to feel safe and secure and so you can sort of rise above Maslow's hierarchy and do other stuff with your life and like create innovate and live happy, prosperous, enjoyable lives and go to work and do things that aren't for defense and drive the economy forward. It is also in the interest of the country to make everyone a little bit aware of how we have this incredible quality of life in the US. And I don't think we're indexed in that direction even 1%. I think as you talk to people, there's a lot of reasonably oblivious but well-intentioned people who are like not willing to give the credence to America's incredible military of why we get to enjoy such charmed lives in this country.

3:06:03And a lot of people that want to like go la da da da da, we live in this amazing globalized wonderful world where no one needs to think about the military at all. And you're like, do you live in this planet? I love peace as much as anyone and that should be the goal. And also the default state of humans. Technology changes human nature doesn't. Right. Unfortunately, there's some set of people who want to like come and take your stuff. And In the same way that prices set in a market by the person who is willing to pay the most, the need for security in the world is set by the person who's most willing to come take your stuff. And that's how much defense you need to have in order to stop them from coming and taking your stuff. And hopefully you don't need to get into armed conflict over it, but I

3:06:51do generally feel that there is a disconnect between people who enjoy the way of life that we have that are unwilling to acknowledge why we have it. And I think that is extremely different today than it was 60 years ago. Yes, I totally agree with everything you're saying. I also think there's another layer to this, which is really a huge theme of this journey with the research and doing this episode for me with Lockheed. And that is the phenomenon of competition.

3:07:21and its impact on human behavior, probably for both the Soviet Union and the US, although I'm less equipped to talk about the Soviet Union, the fact of that competition led to tremendous advances for society, I mean, all the things we just talked about, Silicon Valley itself for God's sakes wouldn't have existed without this. So there is sort of a rational argument for having an adversary. Technology and society was pushed forward in America by the Cold War and by Lockheed as part of that. Yeah. All right, listeners. Now is a great time to talk about one of our favorite companies, Statsig. Yes, there is a reason why the best product teams rely on Statsig, whether they are iterating on their core product features or shipping AI-powered experiences at scale. Yep. In the...

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3:08:57Well, we've already done a bunch of playbook stuff, so before we get into that, formally codified analysis section, let's just talk about real quick, the segments of Lockheed Martin today. So people understand like, what do they actually do today? Because we've talked about a lot of this stuff. There's aeronautics, which in theory contains skunk works. So that's F 35s, F 22s, the old F 16s, the C 130 J, Hercules, airlifter, The F 35, I believe is the largest program generating 20% of all net sales across all segments. Well, like you said, it is enormous. Right. It's 66% of 2022's revenue in that aeronautics division. So like aeronautics equals F 35. There's also missiles and fire control. Then there's

3:09:45three rotary and mission systems, which contains helicopters. They bought Sikorski, so it contains Sikorski, the other helicopter company. And then four is space, which includes the Orion capsule that's evolved over the decades, and it's now part of NASA's Artemis moon program. It also includes ULA, which is the joint venture that we can talk about with Boeing. That was sort of forced upon both Boeing and Lockheed Martin, where they both independently were developing launch capabilities for the US government. This is especially pre-SpaceX or before SpaceX was as powerful as it is today. The US needed to contract launch services from someone. And so Lockheed and Boeing were both developing them. That didn't go terribly well and they ended up asking for bailouts from the government and the government said,

3:10:36Can you two combine and Lockheed Martin and Boeing came back and said, are you kidding me with that guy? No, these companies hate each other. But they agreed to do it because they kind of had to. And so ULA is sort of this shotgun wedding between the two companies, which as we talked about on the SpaceX episode really opened the door for SpaceX to come in and compete totally. And the reason they didn't.

3:10:58go well was because in sort of the pre-space era there were all these companies that wanted to put stuff in space that all ended up going out of business you think like telodesic, iridium, a lot of bankruptcies and so Boeing had tooled up this huge factory Lockheed had done this too and so they were left holding the bag and it got really ugly Boeing was caught trying to steal proprietary data from Lockheed Martin ultimately This JV has gone well. ULA is going to 2X their capacity to 25 launches a year, which is way more than they used to do, but still way less than SpaceX over the next five years or so with this Vulcan rocket. Still more expensive than SpaceX, but they started from big incumbents rather than starting from a startup. So it's just sort of a different disposition.

3:11:44joint ventures are not permanent things, and these companies can't continue to be in business together, so ULA is up for sale, and it'll be very interesting to see if one company or the other ends up buying it. But it is an important part of NASA's Artemis program at others moving forward. It's also important to Amazon, a whole bunch of the Kuiper launches are happening on ULA. Oh, interesting. Is that because Bezos doesn't want to launch on SpaceX?

3:12:11Neither company will really like say anything about that. It's got to be something in there. Billionaire competition. Yes. So those are the four segments, much like our Sony episode. And I'm pulling forward a playbook thing here. This is a pretty well diversified conglomerate. I mean, fighter jets are their bread and butter at 40% of overall revenue.

3:12:33Missiles and space are each 17% and rotary mission systems are 26% and all of them are 9% to 14% margins. So they all are double digit percentage of revenue and double digit percentage of profit. So congratulations. We've got a conglomerate. All right. Well, let's head into our analysis section and this will be to kind of pull together a lot of the strings that we've mentioned on this episode, but codify like, what are the real takeaways and like, let's understand this business and this institution and what it is in our world today to kind of tie together some of the things we've teased at over the course of history here. And again, few caveats, one, we know we did not tell the entire Lockheed Martin story, nor could we. To this is not a political or defense podcast, you can tell that I'm a conflicted person on this.

3:13:27Let's start our analysis section with power. So what we do in this section is we analyze what it is about a business that enables it to achieve persistent differential returns or to put it another way to be way more profitable than their closest competitor and do so sustainably. And this is adapted from a framework that Hamilton Helmer created in his book Seven Powers.

3:13:53the seven are counter positioning as it start up versus an incumbent scale economies across a broad customer base switching costs versus other near competitors network economies process power branding and cornered resource. I was really smiling as you were defining that as persistent differential returns versus their competitors because I'm not sure that Lockheed has.

3:14:21differential returns versus their competitors. I don't know that there's really a market here. Yeah. And power kind of comes only in markets. Yes. Correct. For this, maybe it's more useful to talk about the prime contractor industry as a whole versus any specific player. Well, all the players have the same profit margins too. I guess what I was going with this is, I think there's a cornered resource and process power that The prime contractor industry as a whole has the cornered resources they are the ones to get the prime contracts from the government and then the process power which I think probably is really legitimate. We talk to some folks in preparing for this. They are incredible systems integrators at what they do. What did you say they're 4,000 or 3,000 subcontractors for the F 35 something like that it's nuts.

3:15:17To orchestrate that and coordinate that into an airplane that does the things that airplane does in practice, that's hard. I can't believe it's not all made by the same company. The fuselage is made by a different company than the wings. Are you freaking kidding me and that thing works? Didn't you say that different parts of the fuselage are made by different companies? Yes, on different continents. Yeah. There's definitely process power in that. You can't just pick that up out of Lockheed and go put it somewhere else and expect it to function. Right.

3:15:45Yeah, there's 100 years of know-how and 50 years of very well-honed ways of engaging with the customer here. The customer again being the Pentagon. Right. The customer. It's like big brother, the customer. I think you're right that we should think about it as the primes versus everyone else. It's really hard to become a new prime. Yep. Maybe impossible? You know, Palantir has sort of done it, I guess.

3:16:14Andruil is kind of doing it, but these I think are still pretty small scale compared to the big primes. The $50 billion of spend that the one customer has with the one company. Yeah, it's really hard to break in and be a prime. Yeah. I mean, it's funny, like Lockheed versus Northrup, there's not counter positioning, really. There's not scale economies.

3:16:39because there's one customer to amortize costs across, but you're actually not doing any fixed cost stuff. Your customer is absorbing all the fixed cost stuff too. Switching costs, I guess, but every time there's a new program, they rebit it out, and the government's typically excited to give it to not the incumbent because they actually want to rotate these programs around. So fighter jets are typically not made by the same company, two generations in a row, although Lockheed Martin has sort of shown with the F-22 and the F-35 that they have won that. I think you're right on process power broadly, but is Lockheed Martin's process versus Northrop Grumman's process? No. Branding, I don't think matters here, really. I mean, in cost plus contracting, you're just actually not willing to pay more to one company than the other. So, a cornered resource? No.

3:17:35Not versus each other. Right. So there really isn't power within the industry, but to the extent that you have already become one of these five, then together the five have power versus new entrance. Which is so funny. You know, you really, I think, kind of nailed it at the beginning when you said this isn't a market. It's not a market. And I guess, duh, obviously, it's not a market because there's only one customer. You can't really have a market when there's only one player on one side. Yeah. That's all I got for power.

3:18:05Yeah, me too. So as we drift into Playbook, I think the lens I kind of want to take on this since we did so much analysis over the course of the episode is, what are the big takeaways? Like if I'm really sitting here, stewing on all this, thinking about like, what matters in this episode? One of the big ones is that Lockheed Martin has a dual purpose for existing. There's all the normal stakeholders involved, customers, employees, and shareholders that they want to produce value for. But there's this second thing where they exist for the good of America and its interests, which causes some interesting second order effects, and one being what is the optimal number of competitors in the space? The government tries to optimize this as a heavily interested party, but before 1993 there were way too many competitors. After 1998 they determined we don't want to have any fewer competitors.

3:18:58But it's sort of odd that there is a force that is not the market that is dictating how this plays out because That force in this case the US government is sort of in charge of all of our well-being in a way where they don't trust that the market will Look out for that and when I say that I mean If you left a free market to play out what would happen is A, you'd sell arms to our enemies, which the government doesn't want. B, a bunch of companies would put each other out of business and we might lose our industrial base. People would start outsourcing to other countries. We would potentially lose capability if the government stopped buying it for 10 years, but we wanted it 10 years later and we got in a war. Oh, this almost happened, right? The government didn't let Lockheed go out of business in the 1970s.

3:19:52This was right as the Kenan satellite project was getting going. We could not let Lockheed go out of business because we needed that. Right. So a market cures a lot of problems like price, serving the best product to customers. You know, there are exceptions on all these things.

3:20:12But it doesn't solve for making sure that America stays globally competitive. And so the government has to put their hand on the scale and all these different ways in this market for that reason. Yep. Well, globally competitive is an interesting way to pray safe and globally dominant. Maybe let's put it that way. That's probably the right way to put in. There's a second thing here, which is we literally fund these companies to keep them alive so that they keep employees trained.

3:20:42should we need the employees trained, which is like something that doesn't really exist in other markets, which also is a huge part of the military side of this complex. Right. Of the two million people employed by the military in the United States, do we need all two million of them today? No, it's to keep people in reserve literally. That's not a market driven organization. No, I think would anybody argue it should be right.

3:21:07Yeah, this gets into sort of the like arguments for and against the military industrial complex generally. So there's this like, hey, keep the industrial base strong. It's good that we have this big spend on industry because like we need to have lots of people employed there and know all this stuff. There's this second one, which is like, it's literally a jobs program where you have Congress people as we mentioned earlier voting affirmatively for things because it puts jobs in their state.

3:21:36This is kind of the most pernicious argument of any of them for a pro big military industrial complex. And in particular, in this book that you and I both read, Prophets of War, the book basically just argues that this is all a massive misappropriation of funds and a whole bunch of people acting in their own self interest and not for the country's self interest. It is as far to the side of the scale of like the military industrial complex is bad and evil is the prophets of war book.

3:22:06Right. So this is an excerpt from that book. The irony is that almost any other form of spending from education to health care to mass transit to weatherizing buildings, even a tax cut creates more jobs than military spending.

3:22:23That just falls on deaf ears over and over again with these programs F-22 in particular is that book points out this like it creates lots of jobs that argument continues to win the day this 95,000 people are required to build the F-35 it's like oh good jobs for Americans and like that is a terrible reason to fund something right it's kind of like I'm thinking about the recent period in tech companies in Silicon Valley that we are mercifully exiting out of now where it was all about Employee headcount and capturing engineers and Facebook had God knows how many people working on Oculus and like why you know, that was the equivalent of the F 35 Yeah, I Google sort of cornering resources on really smart people despite the fact that they weren't getting any economic output out of them right

3:23:08I mean, the biggest argument again states all the way back to 1961 and Eisenhower's farewell address. He gave this sort of legendary military industrial complex speech racist. In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. It's interesting, my two things. One, I think that was maybe In part from observing what was happening in the Soviet Union where the military and military spending overran the whole rest of the economy clearly as we're talking about here like yeah, I think this is a nuanced issue and certainly a lot of degree of non-market-based Dynamics are warranted here But you can't let the military industrial complex get so big it overruns the rest of the economy that would not be good the other thing I was going to say is I think the end of that

3:24:05Quote or speech are at least part of it is you know Eisenhower sort of I think very naively puts forth the solution is What does he say like an engaged and vigilant citizenry you know populace? Especially this day and age are things are so complex. That's kind of not possible You know is the average person really gonna dive into the details of how the f 35 program works like No. Right. That's not a good outcome either. If everyone's preoccupied and keeping an eye to make sure big complex doesn't get too complex, see? Right. Yeah. There's another one I've been thinking about, which is a parallel to our SpaceX episode, where if you'll remember on the SpaceX episode, we talked about, and gosh, that was a lifetime ago, three years, about how NASA prioritized safety over everything else.

3:24:55And so they took that to such an extreme where things could happen on a 20-year-time span instead of a five-year-time span. And SpaceX came in and said, well, if we do it on a two-year-time span, and we figure out how to be much more iterative in our development, and we're happy to explode some rockets, not with people on them. And you sort of take this, again, much more Silicon Valley approach.

3:25:17to rapid iteration, testing your own prototypes internally, being okay showing off your failures and gathering data from them, whereas NASA couldn't do enough calculations before it finally was willing to do something, to let something go to a launch pad, and that would cause extreme delays, massive budget overruns. And at the end of the day, it actually wasn't safer. That's the important thing here. In 130 or whatever it was, space shuttle missions, there were two that were tragic loss of life calamities. And so you look at that, you're like, that's actually not a great safety record. So maybe this isn't the right way to do it. Maybe calculating something to, you know, 15 significant digits of unlikely to fail is not actually the best outcome. And it sort of seems like the same thing in the military industrial complex where we're willing to sign a contract for airplanes that we get in 25 years because there are these like

3:26:17big huge productions and it's just the opposite of the skunkworks way of operating where test your own prototypes do it rapidly start moving up and up and up crash some planes in the desert but overall we're going to get to the same outcome much faster on a much lower budget and maybe with equivalent or better safety 100% Well, I can't think of a better place to talk about what I think are really like the takeaways for me at least and I hope for many people listening of this episode and it's really like the heyday glory days whatever you want to call it of Lockheed both with skunkworks and LMSC of how these small skunkworks type organizations achieved unbelievable

3:27:13unfathomable things with a small number of people in an unrealistically tight time frame with very constrained resources. And that mindset is certainly not the only way that you can achieve great things, but it's a really damn good way to do it. And that mindset got injected into Silicon Valley by these people, by the military and by Lockheed. And it's just so funny that The military industrial complex has now become the opposite of that, has become like what you're talking about with NASA. Again, there's many ways to succeed in different situations called for different things. But like, if you really need to or want to achieve something great bordering on impossible in a tight bordering on unreasonable time frame, Kelly's 14 laws and LMSC's 710s are a pretty damn good way to do it.

3:28:12That's so true. Otherwise, you get to this thing that Norm Augustine said, how unbelievably expensive these things get if you do it the non-Skunkwerks way. And we just move into this larger and larger morass that we're sort of... The direction we're basically going in in these 25-year programs. And he says, in the year 2054, the entire defense budget will purchase just one aircraft.

3:28:34This aircraft will have to be shared between the Air Force and the Navy three and a half days per week, except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day. He really is such a character. Truly, but the craziest thing is much like Moore's law. He accurately predicted the rate at which aircraft prices would continue to grow starting way back in 1983. He actually wasn't far off on the F-35 on sort of his prediction on how expensive it would be on the cost curve.

3:29:04To exactly your point, if you continue at current course and speed, we basically will have only billion dollar airplanes going forward. They'll be made by everybody. There will be no new entrance. Innovation will happen very slowly. Very slowly. When you look at Lockheed Martin as a business, they're going to do just fine for a long time. No doubt about it. They're an incredibly protected, insulated business with an unbelievably wedded to them customer.

3:29:33the creative destruction cycle will happen on other frontiers. There will be some existential need to create something that these companies are bad at creating and the US government doesn't know how to buy from them. And the United States will have to figure it out another way. And whether that's cybersecurity or whether that's information warfare or whatever it is, whatever threatens the American way of life, I have pretty high confidence the American government will figure out some way.

3:30:00to make sure that we prepare for that issue, whatever that issue is. And it may or may not be from one of these companies. And it's very likely that the skunk works mentality ends up solving more problems for our country, but probably not from the skunk works division of Lockheed Martin. And you know, I guess what is sort of hardening at least as an American is the capability to do this definitely still exists. It just happened with vaccines for the coronavirus.

3:30:28Totally. Yeah, Operation Warp Speed is a great example of rip down all the barriers and figure out how to do something even if there's some risk. Yep. You know what, that's a good way to put a threat. Kind of the back to the LMSC tenant number one that we talked about. So, while you go in the story of focus on a threat-based need, I maybe want to evolve some of my comments earlier about competition into that. Competition creates threats.

3:30:57It's not always competition that leads to a threat. Human beings and organizations tend to perform at their best in response to threats. Otherwise, how are you going to be motivated to go to unreasonable extremes if you're not facing a threat? Yeah. No, I like that nuance. Which is kind of a, you know, to this playbook of like, I certainly don't want to say artificially manufactured threats, but if you're building a company, certainly this exists in startup or you have an implicit existential threat all the time as a startup before you reach cashflow profitability, which is like, you got to make payroll and you got to like either get profitable or raise another round of funding or you're done. Yeah, I think you're right. I think we're quickly sort of teasing out. There's sort of like two different things here. It's Lockheed Martin exists to ensure the Americaness continues. As we know it today, current course and speed

3:31:57as protected as it needs to be with the types of protections we need. Great. We know where to get that. And I have no doubt that will continue happening. And also there will be other motivations for people to form tight knit teams and accomplish great things. And like those are going to be four other threats and happen by other groups of people. And I want to hear your thoughts on that. Maybe this is the place to leave it. Rather than grading this time, let's come up with kind of the main takeaway. But I'm curious what you think. I like that a lot.

3:32:24It's probably a good thing that the nature of that motivation and the introduction of those threats to spur human ingenuity and creativity has moved for now at least mostly out of the war arena. It's probably good that it's not threat of nuclear war that is motivating people to achieve great things. Most people, yeah. Yeah, most people at least right now, mercifully, thankfully. And that mindset was directly transferred from Lockheed in the military into Silicon Valley. That's how Silicon Valley operates today, and that's what makes it special. And it doesn't have to be because of threats of war, and it's a good thing that it's not. All right. I think that's the right place to leave it. You want to do carveouts? Yeah, let's do it. My carveout is a fun one I was reminded of because my favorite.

3:33:16video game history podcast series resonant arc is covering it as their game right now. I think I might have had this as a carve out a couple years ago. The game near automata is a super fun game and the series that resonant arc is in the middle of is their video game storybook club going through it. It's both a really fun game to play and was kind of ahead of its time. The sort of theme of the game is all about can machines think and feel and what does that look like.

3:33:46and like I was like really thought provoking at the time it's particularly thought provoking right now in our era of you know open AI and GPT and generative AI and all that so it's really fun to revisit that along with the great resonant archives right now talking about the themes of that story nice you'll have like a whole niche of people there listening to your carve outs for video game video game Rex totally I have to. One is something that didn't quite fit anywhere in this episode, but if you love airplanes and you are excited about the SR 71, you should Google the SR 71 blackbird speed check story. The awesome story that I'm not going to spoil for you, but is about pilot jocks at their finest and a triumphant blackbird. It's a joy to read. It takes like two minutes. I think you'll like it. We'll also link to it in the show notes. The second one I have

3:34:42is very, very boring carve out, but it's something I've found surprising. Ego lawn tools. EG-O is the brand. They make effectively the Tesla of lawn mowers. And growing up, I had like a big gas lawn mower and you like pull a cord to start it and it was loud and it was smelly and it was dirty and it was like gas. And these are battery powered lawn mowers that are...

3:35:08insanely powerful. I have a leaf blower also that lasts like 30 minutes off of just a battery. Look at you. You're just becoming a dad. I'm finding some like very good catharsis in I just throw on audio book and as I'm researching an acquired episode and like go do lawn work for six hours. And I find that to be like greatly gratifying to get away from a screen. I've chosen to go the higher gardeners route. You can you also have a two year old. So yes.

3:35:38takes more of your time. Well, and the nature of a yard in San Francisco is a little different. I'm not sure I'm capable of maintaining my yard given everything that's back there. It requires more technical expertise, more systems integration. More systems integration. All right, listeners, thank you so much for joining us. If you want to become an LP, we would love to have you help us pick more episodes like this one in the future, acquired.fm slash LP. And when I get back from a Berkshire, I think we'll do an LP call here in the next month or so.

3:36:08You should totally check out ACQ-2 if you like hearing us interview other people. I can assure you the next few interviews are going to be. Oh, they are going to be great. Even the ones that are live now, the one we just did with Jake, the one with Avlock from Angel List, the one with David from Retool, fantastic Kamakshi, with her company Samooha, all like really fascinating discussions. Look up ACQ-2 in any podcast player. Now that you're down with this episode, Come discuss it with us, acquire.fm slash slack. We'd love to have you. And particularly, too, I think there's a good chance with this episode that we'll have a lot of new to acquired folks who are listening. We unexpectedly had that in huge numbers with our LVMH episode, all sorts of new people coming in and experiencing acquired and listening to us for the first time. If you're doing that now, here with this Lockheed episode,

3:37:03Definitely go check out some of our other episodes on other industries, and I just want to second what Ben said. Join the Slack and come talk about it with us. We love hearing from people, you know, we're obviously not in the defense industry. We love hearing from people who are, tell us about your experiences, what it's like, what we got right, what we got wrong, and educate all the rest of us in the community, too. Yep, seriously. All right, with Atlas and we'll see you next time. We'll see you next time.

3:37:31Is it you, is it you, is it you? Who got the truth now?