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The Economics of Everyday Things - 89. Locksmiths

Duration 18:51 · Language en · Published Nov 09, 2026 · 5 highlights

Summary

本期节目通过科罗拉多州的流动锁匠韦恩·温顿和纽约格林尼治村的一对锁匠父子,探讨美国锁匠行业的经济模式、技术变化与信任危机。这个拥有约一万五千名从业者、市场规模达数十亿美元的行业以小型独立经营者为主,业务涵盖配钥匙、紧急开锁、维修古董锁和开启银行金库,需要大量设备投入与持续学习。温顿强调,真正的现场开锁远比网络视频中的演示复杂,专业能力不仅体现为破解机械装置,也体现为如何对待陷入困境的客户。诈骗经营者利用搜索排名和极低报价吸引急需帮助的人,再通过破坏锁具、推销替换硬件和施压付款收取高额费用,而节目指出,美国仅有十三个州要求锁匠持有执照。自动配钥匙机和电子门锁正在改变传统业务,但电子系统更擅长提供出入记录与管理便利,并不必然提升安全性,密码的传播和存储反而可能增加泄露风险。面对数字化转型,温顿认为住宅、办公楼和学校升级电子门禁将创造巨大商机,呈现出与传统配钥匙业务面临自动化威胁不同的前景。尽管开启保险箱偶尔能发现珍贵的历史材料,节目最终强调,锁匠工作的核心价值仍是帮助普通人解决危机、保护家暴受害者,并出售难以用价格衡量的安心感。

Highlights

  1. I want to be able to go unlock a jaguar that nobody else can open and then go crack an antique safe and then go rekey a home for a domestic violence victim. I've just had so many interesting different adventures.

    我希望能去打开一辆别人都打不开的捷豹汽车,然后去打开一个古董保险箱,再去为一位家暴受害者更换家中锁具的钥匙配置。我经历过太多有趣而各不相同的冒险。

    An unexpected mix of technical adventure and social care
  2. You usually see a low price in 1999 or a 2999 or some ridiculously low price that nobody could work off of and survive. So that's a big giant red flag. I don't even put my pants on for less than $100.

    你通常会看到十九块九毛九、二十九块九毛九,或者其他低得离谱的报价,根本没人能靠这种收费维持生计。所以这是一个非常明显的危险信号。不到一百美元,我连裤子都懒得穿。

    A memorable warning about bait-and-switch pricing
  3. There's this illusion that the system's more secure. You know what it's better at? It's good at giving you audit trail control, so you can see who goes in and out, but the entrance is not safer.

    人们有一种错觉,以为这套系统更安全。你知道它真正更擅长什么吗?它擅长提供可审计的出入记录,让你知道谁进谁出,但入口本身并没有更安全。

    Separates digital access management from actual security
  4. Schools are upgrading to electronic locks so they can do a massive lockdown in the event of an emergency. So I see nothing but opportunity. Somebody in this industry now could quite literally be more well off financially than an attorney or a doctor in the next 10 years.

    学校正在升级电子锁,以便在紧急情况下实施大范围封锁。所以我看到的全是机会。现在进入这个行业的人,在未来十年里,经济状况完全可能比律师或医生更好。

    A bold counterpoint to fears of automation
  5. A few years ago, Wynton cracked an old safe at a newspaper office in Colorado and found long lost photos of the serial killer Ted Bundy. It was like a time capsule. The last time this thing was opened was literally with the photo negatives of Ted Bundy as they were re-arresting h ...

    几年前,温顿打开了科罗拉多州一家报社里的旧保险箱,发现了失落已久的连环杀手泰德·邦迪的照片。它就像一个时间胶囊。这个保险箱上次被打开时,里面放入的正是邦迪再次被捕时拍摄的照片底片。

    A safe-opening job unexpectedly uncovers historical evidence
Full transcript

For most of us, getting locked out of our house or our car is a pretty miserable experience. But for Wayne Winton, a lock without a key is a thing of beauty. When you pick your first lock, that's one huge dopamine rush. The second is when you open your first car, then when you open your first safe and when you open your first bank vault. When you have this chunk of metal specifically engineered by hundreds of years of security technology and some of the greatest minds in the world to keep people out. And I can open that. It's undescribable. I would put it on par as your first kiss with your soulmate. That's about the level of joy I get. Winton is one of around 15,000 locksmiths in America that make up a multi-billion dollar industry. In his line of work, every day looks a little different.

Oh, I love it. I love it. I want to be able to go unlock a jaguar that nobody else can open and then go crack an antique safe and then Go rekey a home for a domestic violence victim. I've just had so many Interesting different adventures a locksmith never knows what tomorrow might bring and the same thing is true for the profession as a whole locks are increasingly being digitized Keys are being replaced by numeric codes. And the real product that locksmith sell, trust, is under siege by technologically savvy scammers. These guys show up. It's a whole song and dance. Oh, we're going to have to drill out your lock. And they say, oh, we need a new lock, new this, that. And it's going to be, you know, $1,500 to $2,000. For the Freakonomics Radio Network, this is the Economics of Everyday Things. I'm Zachary Crockett. Today,

Locksmiths. In any given town, it's likely that you'll find at least one locksmith nearby. The industry has a few national players, like Papalock, a franchise with more than 450 locations in North America. But most locksmithing operations are small businesses. Locksmiths are very strong-willed people who don't like to be told what to do. So the corporate concept is very difficult.

Again, that's Wayne Winton. It is consistent of mostly small, independent, one or two person in van and a lot of mobile shops. If you can buy a van and equipment and you get the knowledge, you can be a locksmith tomorrow. Winton operates Tri-County Locksmith Service in Glenwood Springs, Colorado. It's a small operation. Winton and one employee, each working out of their own truck.

Some locksmiths maintain a physical shop where they make keys and repair locks on site. Wynton, like many younger locksmiths, prefers to be mobile. His office is a Ford F350 with 250,000 miles on it. And he keeps his extra gear in a storage unit. I would say there's at least $30,000 worth of equipment in each vehicle and probably another $30,000 worth of equipment.

sitting in the storage unit. The locksmith business is multifaceted. In a given week, you might duplicate a bunch of keys, respond to residential and auto lockouts, replace dead bolts in a commercial building, and break into an old safe or bank vault at the behest of a client. To do all of that, you need a hefty stable of tools, lockpicks, pin kits, door boring jigs, spanner wrenches, dremels, drills, jigsaws, lubricants.

You'll need a variety of new locks and installation hardware. And you'll also need key cutting and duplication machines that can run hundreds or even thousands of dollars. I've got a Triton key machine that does just about all my key cutting. I've got some basic key blanks. I've probably got $8,000 worth of drill bits, some basic electronic access stuff, fish tapes, stuff to run wire, inspection cameras, auto dialer that would basically run.

every single combination possible on a combination lock. I've got some other little black magic boxes that do stuff that I can't really talk about, but, you know, just a lot of cool stuff. In the right hands, all of these tools can be a great investment. If I have a full eight to 10 hour day, I can make anywhere from, you know, 1200, 2400 to $5,000 in one day.

Locksmiths generally charge a flat fee to show up for a job and once they're on site They bill an hourly rate to fix the issue Helping people with lockouts is a big part of the job and it requires a deep level of knowledge about many different locks When something new hits the market, I will literally go to the hardware store and buy it to Reverse engineer it and figure out how to defeat it and be the first person to come up with that new knowledge Wynton says the most familiar lock is the classic pin tumbler that's found on front doors of typical houses and apartments. Inside one of these locks, there's a series of vertical pins of differing heights connected to springs. When you put the correct key into the lock, its unique ridges push those pins up in just the right alignment to allow you to turn the bolt and unlock the door. But in the event that you forget your key, a locksmith has another way in.

A technique called lock picking. What lock picking is is taking advantage of the microscopic imperfections in that lock or tolerances in that lock to open it without the actual key. A skilled locksmith can exploit this by applying tension to the lock and using picks that look like little dental plaque scrapers to push the pins up individually.

There's a lot of mystique around this process. On YouTube, lock-picking videos have millions of views. How easy is it really to pick a lock? Super, super easy to pick this lock. This is a no-brainer. I'm a professional bad guy, and today I'm gonna show you how I pick locks. How to pick a lock with a paperclip, okay? But these social media experiments are often done on brand new locks. It's a lot harder to pick one out in the wild.

It's dirty, it's gritty, people have sprayed graphite and WD-40 and made concrete inside of that lock. If I'm picking a lock and I haven't got it after 10 minutes, we'll just drill it and I will replace it on my time and dime and I will only charge you the lock-out fee. Not all locksmiths are so considerate. When you search for locksmith on the internet in your city or town, it's likely that some of the top results are unlicensed to operators.

who use local keyword advertising to get to the top of listings. You're in a panic, right? You're going to click on the first solution presented to you. You usually see a low price in 1999 or a 2999 or some ridiculously low price that nobody could work off of and survive. So that's a big giant red flag. I don't even put my pants on for less than $100. These scammers will often create listings.

for multiple fake businesses with different names. When you dial the phone number they provide, the calls all route to a central operator who dispatches someone from a network. Somebody shows up in an unmarked car with no uniform with a basic paper invoice that doesn't have any company information on it. They tell you that it's a high security lock. They drill it, they destroy it or damage your vehicle or damage your home lock because they're not skilled. And then they.

Try and bully you into going to the ATM and getting cash or paying them a ludicrous sum of money, five, six, seven hundred dollars plus. So these guys, their game is to basically offer you a really low price and then just drill out your lock and upsell you on the hardware. Bait and switch. Winton says these scammers are taking a big toll on the locksmithing business. For every nefarious listing that gets boosted in search results, a legitimate operator is losing business.

Anybody who knows how to manipulate Google can rise to the top of the Google ladder. And that is probably the single biggest problem in the industry today. A lot of the older guys out there that have shops, they simply don't know how to operate that stuff. And you've made it a technological game that is basically set up for us to fail.

A lack of technical knowledge isn't the only thing to blame for these problems. Only 13 states require locksmiths to have a license. When I unlock people's vehicles, one of my favorite one-liner jokes is, you have to have a license to drive your car. I do not have to have one to break into it. The industry has created its own mechanisms of trust. The associated locksmiths of America certifies businesses they deem to be reputable.

But sometimes the best option to find a trustworthy locksmith is to walk into a shop on the street and talk to one in person. The outside is covered in keys. The door is covered in keys. I have a chair that I made out of keys, which is in here right now. And the inside, there are hundreds of thousands of keys. This is the key temple. This is Key Mecca, okay? That's coming up. Along 7th Avenue South, in New York City's Greenwich Village, you'll find the impossibly tiny storefront of Greenwich locksmiths. It's owned by a father-son duo, both named Phil. My name is Philip Mortillaro, senior, and I'm the owner of Greenwich locksmiths along here with my son, who, when I kick the bucket, will get it. I'm Philip Mortillaro, junior, and I've been a locksmith my whole life studying and working under my father.

Phil Sr. got into the locksmithing trade back in the 1960s. He dropped out of school after the eighth grade, worked as an apprentice, and eventually bought a tiny building in Manhattan for $20,000, where he set up his own business. Today, it's a neighborhood institution. We do a lot of repairs on antique locks. There's two locks that are sitting here. They're from Grace Church, 1846, and I'm rebuilding them. Let's go put the key in the lock. That sounds good.

Greenwich locksmiths specializes in over-the-counter work. They cut and duplicate thousands of keys every week, most of them for $5 a piece. Inside the shop, they're around $50,000 worth of machines for stamping, cutting, and duplicating all kinds of keys. But the keymaking side of the locksmithing business has been under threat in the past decade. A venture capital-backed company called Kimi has rolled out a network of more than 6,000 digital kiosks all over the country. You can upload a photo of your house or car key, and the machine can replicate it without the hand of a human locksmith. The automatic machines are getting better, and inevitably they're going to get better and better and better, and they're going to take everybody's job. It's not just keys. Locks are changing too. Many traditional locks are being replaced by electronic locks.

controlled by keypads or even fingerprints. Phil Jr. works with these keys frequently, and he says the fancy components don't necessarily make a lock safer. There's this illusion that the system's more secure. You know what it's better at? It's good at giving you audit trail control, so you can see who goes in and out, but the entrance is not safer. Wayne Winton of Tri-County Locksmith Service says electronic locks can actually introduce more potential security breaches than a key operated lock. The only way that I can open my home before is with this specific key and you could pick that lock. There's the only two ways in. Now if I take an electronic lock, what if you gave that code out? What if you stored that code in your phone? What if you send an email with that code? All of those are opportunities for somebody to get access. It's convenience versus security and convenience always wins.

Despite their flaws, Wynton feels optimistic about his trades ability to capitalize on electronic locks. All those houses, apartments, and office buildings that are going keyless present a tantalizing business opportunity. This is not only the golden age, I would say this is the platinum age of the locksmith to be able to upgrade existing systems and homes.

two electronics. We're right in the transition. Almost every new building that's going up right now has low voltage electronic access wires being put into it. Schools are upgrading to electronic locks so they can do a massive lockdown in the event of an emergency. So I see nothing but opportunity. Somebody in this industry now could quite literally be more well off financially than an attorney or a doctor in the next 10 years.

Installing new systems, making keys, and changing and picking locks may be the bread and butter of the locksmith's business. But the most prized jobs tend to be cracking safes and bank faults. Wynton has done safe work for high-security jewelers and banks all over the Southwest and Midwest. Usually, my policy is, here's my price. I need 50% upfront. I guarantee the work. If I don't complete the job and I can't open it, you don't pay.

And they haven't made a container on this planet that I haven't been able to open yet. Winton often charges several thousand dollars for a single safe cracking job. But it's not easy work. A bank vault is one of the most secure devices on the planet. There's literally three or four Swiss type built watches in there for what's called a time delay system or a time lock that all have to function correctly at the same time.

And there's two very highly precision made mechanical locks as well. So there is a tremendous amount of moving parts that all have to harmonize and synchronize in a very, very orderly specific fashion in order for that vault to open. And if one of those things is off, the door remains locked and you are stuck on the other side of between 6, 8, 12 inches, 24 inches of steel concrete.

glass barrier materials, just some of the craziest things the human mind can put together to keep people out. Some safe crackers use a technique called manipulation. They'll press an amplifier or stethoscope-like device up against the metal and listen for tiny clicks inside the safe as they turn the dials. Someone with an intimate knowledge of safe mechanics can pick up on slight variations in sound and feel.

and record readings to identify likely combinations. Others might try to get blueprints from a safe's manufacturer that tele-locksmith were to strategically drill through the steel. But if the drill goes in at the wrong angle, it could shatter a glass layer, triggering extra locking mechanisms inside the safe. It's an intimate understanding of how the container functions mechanically that allows you to pinpoint a certain location to where It all comes to a head. Wynton says that all of this work rarely yields a satisfying result for a client. 90% of the time, even more than 90% of the time, people think there's gonna be a bunch of cool stuff in a safe. And normally there's not. My joke is that there's gonna be nothing but rubber bands and paper clips in there. That's not always the case. A few years ago, Wynton cracked an old safe at a newspaper office in Colorado and found long lost photos.

of the serial killer Ted Bundy. It was like a time capsule. The last time this thing was opened was literally with the photo negatives of Ted Bundy as they were re-arresting him. Jobs like this are glamorous. But Wynton says the true glory comes from the everyday services, helping a couple get back in their car in a gas station parking lot or changing the locks on a house for a victim of domestic violence.

This is not a job. This is a privilege. I get to save the day. I get to be a hero. What I sell is peace of mind. And you can't really put a price on that. Have you ever locked yourself out? Yes, I left my key inside the truck, but I did get myself back into it. I wouldn't dare let another locksmith have the...

clout to have let me back into my vehicle. I would have broken a window first. For the economics of everyday things, I'm Zachary Crockett. This episode was produced by me and Sarah Lilly and mixed by Jeremy Johnston. We had help from Daniel Moritz Rapson. You guys could probably make killing his burglars if you wanted to. I make a killing the other way. It's okay. The Freakonomics Radio Network. The hidden side of everything.

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